JOIN USAssam Assembly Polls 2021: Can Congress' 'strategic alliance' stop BJP's run in the state?
By stitching a "strategic alliance" with six other parties for the ensuing Assembly elections in Assam, Congress is trying to unite all opposition votes against BJP in that state after the saffron party wrested power from it in 2016.
Congress first got Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF, its rival since 2005, all three left parties and another small regional force on board to form the "grand alliance" and then managed to bring back Bodoland People's Front (BPF), which had broken its eight-year-long alliance with Congress in 2014 and joined hands with BJP just before the Assembly elections in 2016. Between 2005 and 2014, BPF was a post-poll ally of the Congress government headed by Tarun Gogoi.
The alliance looks solid against BJP and its two regional allies, AGP and UPPL. Congress is still leaving no stone unturned to get AASU-backed Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal, on its side.
"The Grand Alliance will defeat BJP and form the next government," Aniruddh Singh, AICC secretary in Assam confidently told reporters in Guwahati recently, with leaders of all seven allies sitting beside him. What makes Congress so confident about the polls? Can the strategic alliance break BJP's run in Assam since 2014?
United Muslim votes
In the 2016 elections, the Muslim votes of the state were divided between Congress and AIUDF, which led to BJP's victory. With the two parties in cohorts for this year's elections, this division can be prevented, Congress leaders told DH.
"In 2016 elections, BJP candidates managed to win in at least 18 Assembly seats with a very less margin, mainly due to division of the Muslim votes. Similarly, left parties came second in at least 7-8 seats. But they could not win due to vote division. This time candidates put up by the grand alliance are bound to win in these seats," said a Congress leader in Assam.
The anti-CAA stand brought Congress, AIUDF and the left together this time. According to the Congress leader, this was prompting BJP to repeatedly charge Ajmal as "protector of infiltrators" as part of the saffron party's "polarisation tactics".
Foreigner jab
Ahead of this year's polls, Congress is trying to project BJP as a threat to the Assamese identity, a strategy which BJP had adopted before the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections and in Assam in 2016. BJP repeatedly charged that Congress governments in the past failed to stop "illegal infiltration" from Bangladesh and thereby, used the "Muslim foreigners" as their vote bank.
With the CAA, the Congress is using BJP's old jabs as ammunition saying this law would allow a large number of post-1971 Hindu-Bengali migrants from Bangladesh to get citizenship, thereby threatening the identity and culture of the Assamese people.
"Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched an attack on Assam's identity by bringing the CAA. He talks about CAA in rest of the country, but not in Assam as people here are angry," Congress general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said on Tuesday in a rally in Tezpur in North Assam, known as Assam's cultural capital.
Bodoland equation
As BJP dumped the Bodoland People's Front (BPF), its ally since 2016 ahead of the Bodoland Territorial Council elections in December, Congress convinced them to join them to fight BJP and its new ally UPPL. "The grand alliance will surely form the next government. No one can stop us. I helped BJP to win at least 12 seats outside Bodoland Region in 2016. This time, I will help Congress win those seats," BPF chief, Hagrama Mohilary said in the Priyanka Gandhi's rally.
BPF had won all 12 seats in the Bodoland Region in 2016. "BPF might not be able to form the Bodoland Council this time but they emerged as the single largest party. So Hagrama's popularity has not gone down there," said a Congress leader.
Assam will witness polling in three phases on March 27, April 1 and April 6.