JOIN USIMD says monsoon to reach Kerala coast on June 6
The south-west monsoon is set to reach the Kerala coast on June 6, India Meteorological Department says on Wednesday.
The forecast from the official agency comes a day after Skymet, a private weather service provider, declared June 4 as the monsoon onset date.
“This year, the statistical model forecast suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed. The southwest monsoon onset is likely to set over Kerala on June 6 with a model error of four days on either side,” IMD said in a statement.
The south west monsoon would enter the southern part of Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining south east Bay of Bengal during May 18-19, but its subsequent march to the mainland would be a tad slow.
The government weather bureau said its onset forecast was based on a six-parameter statistical model that used regional and global parameters as the inputs. In the last four out of five years, IMD was extremely accurate in predicting the onset date.
The only exception was in 2015 when the met agency forecast May 30 as the onset date but the rain reached the Malabar coast on June 5.
This time the onset date forecast comes with an error margin of four days on either side, which means the monsoon could reach Kerala anytime between June 2 and June 10.
A day before Skymet claimed that the initial progression of the monsoon after reaching Kerala would be sluggish and all the four regions – north-west, north-east, central and peninsular India – would receive less than normal rainfall in 2019.
The IMD, however, in its April forecast predicted a near normal monsoon in 2019 with the country receiving 96% of its average rainfall of 88 cm between June and September.
An update of the April forecast will come by the first week of June in which IMD will forecast the rainfall scenario for these four regions.