Wheat: Experts rule out heat impact

With no heatwave forecast for this month from the IMD, farm scientists and traders on Wednesday said March weather would be conducive for a good wheat harvest though the quality of grains may falter in a few pockets due to unseasonal rain.

Even as the Union Agriculture Ministry keeps a close watch on the wheat scenario, experts rule out a repeat of 2022 when a heatwave in March lowered India’s wheat production.

“We don’t foresee any heatwave in March,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at India Meteorological Department told DH. “The prevailing weather is not an issue for wheat harvest. As per the IMD forecast, the weather will remain favourable till March 25,” said Gyanender Singh, principal investigator (crop improvement) at ICAR’s Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal.

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Harvesting has begun in parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, and will start in Punjab and Haryana by the first week of April.

A special committee set up by the Union government Committee has assessed that wheat crop condition is normal in all major wheat growing states.

Indian Council of Agriculture Research and State Agriculture Universities have developed several terminal heat stress tolerant varieties that are now under cultivation in an estimated area of more than 50 per cent particularly in the north western plain zone.

Also, about 75 per cent of the area is under early and timely sowing conditions in Haryana and Punjab and therefore, the crop area with early sowing, will not be affected by March heat.

A commodity trader in Madhya Pradesh Sehore district told DH that the quality of grain might suffer if there were unseasonal rains. This may happen in those areas where the crop is yet to mature, but there would not be much impact on wheat productivity.

However, the production of chickpea, a common pulse variety, may drop by around 10-15 per cent from the last year output of 13.5 million tonne due to early maturity caused by above normal temperature which prevailed in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat last month. In both Rajasthan and Gujarat, the production is expected to drop by around 30 per cent.

Earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reviewed the threat from heatwave conditions in summer months with top officials.

India last month estimated wheat production in 2023 could rebound to a record 112.2 million tonnes, but some of the trade bodies are less optimistic due to the heatwave. A section of farmers too is worried, though experts brush aside such apprehensions.