Will Mehbooba be able to retain south Kashmir forte?

Slated to go for polls in three phases between April 23 to May 6, result of south Kashmir’s Anantnag Parliamentary constituency will determine the relevance of PDP president Mehbooba Mufti in the state’s politics for the next few years.

The constituency is spread over four volatile districts of Anantnag, Kulgam, Shopian and Pulwama, the last of them the site of February’s terror attack on a CRPF convoy, killing 40 paramilitary personnel and ratcheting India-Pakistan tensions.

Once the bastion of the PDP, the region has remained the nerve centre of new age-militancy since the 2016 summer unrest that followed the death of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen poster boy Burhan Wani at the security forces’ hands.

Such is the security situation in south Kashmir, that this would be the first time that a single parliamentary constituency would vote in three phases, a dubious feat not achieved even during the height of militancy during 1990s.

“We will have to carry out three phases of election for just (the) one constituency of Anantnag. So you can imagine how complicated it is,” chief election commissioner Sunil Arora had said in March.

Frequent encounters between security forces and militants, regular blasting of houses, heightened militarization, raids and detentions, have cast a serious shadow over the election campaigning in south Kashmir. The colorful posters and banners, which were used in abundance in 2014 Assembly and Parliamentary elections are missing this time.

The constituency has remained vacant for almost three years now. Mehbooba Mufti won from Anantnag in 2014 and resigned in 2016 after taking over as the chief minister of the state. The by-poll to fill the seat could not take place as poll officials felt the security situation was not conducive.

Mehbooba faces main challenge from Congress’ state president GA Mir while her main rival party, National Conference has fielded lesser-known candidate, the former judge, Hasnain Masoodi. Besides possibility of less voter turnout, the other challenge before the authorities would be to ensure peaceful polling.

Banking on her old contacts and grass root activism, Mehbooba eyes to secure another parliament berth from the south, which is otherwise sulking over the turn of events in the valley, ever since PDP shook hands with BJP. A defeat would mean Mehbooba and her PDP would be relegated to wilderness for some years on the political map of Kashmir.

The PDP has been facing internal wrangling ever since BJP withdrew its support to Mehbooba led government in the state last June plunging the state into Governor’s rule and later into presidential rule. What remains to be seen is whether PDP chief would be able to retain the south Kashmir forte?