J&K elections: Prospects of a BJP CM

After the final report of the Delimitation Commission for Jammu and Kashmir has been submitted, elections to the Union Territory (UT) are only a matter of time. The Election Commission can start the process rolling once the Centre notifies the new constituencies. Speculation is that the J&K state Assembly elections might be held along with those in Himachal Pradesh or Gujarat before this year-end.

The objections of the mainstream Kashmiri leaders - that the exercise was against geographical realities, norms of uniform population, compactness, contiguity, connectivity and public convenience and tilts the balance of political power in favour of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - are water under the bridge now.

Still, the BJP government at the Centre is under no pressure to hold elections to the J&K legislative Assembly either from the people of the UT or from international leaders. The Narendra Modi government can choose its moment to do one of two things. Either it can delay elections to the J&K Assembly until it is absolutely certain that a BJP chief minister, preferably a Hindu from Jammu, can be installed in Srinagar. Or, it could hold the elections now and then machinate to form a BJP government in J&K.

After the BJP's massive victory against perceived odds in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi's earlier predilection for stretching out the electoral process in J&K has shifted. So it is likely that legislative elections will be held sooner rather than later. Tactical interventions for government formation would then follow after the results are declared.

This time the BJP would want a chief minister of its own in J&K. All its initiatives point in this direction, from bifurcating the Muslim majority state, removing its special status, rejigging constituencies to ensure that their number and demographic composition favour the BJP, setting up proxy political parties in the Valley and chipping away at the Gupkar Alliance of the mainstream political parties.

The BJP is unlikely to win even from a single constituency in the Valley, assuming that polling would be free and without interference from the administration and the security forces. Nor are its potential allies, like Sajjad Lone's Peoples' Conference or Altaf Bukhari's Apani Party, likely to score any better than the BJP with voters clearly aware of their pro-BJP inclinations. With the National Conference and the Peoples' Democratic Party as the two main contenders in the Valley, the 47 seats in the Valley would be out of the BJP's reach. It is unclear how it can fix this situation.

The BJP's attention is likely to be electorally focussed on Jammu, where it expects a consolidation of Hindu votes overlooking issues such as jobs, control over land and entry of outsiders in business and commercial activities, hitherto reserved for the locals. It will also count on the Jammu residents feeling that the upper hand enjoyed by the Kashmir Valley over Jammu in the erstwhile state of J&K will be now reversed. In effect, the anti-Kashmir and anti-Muslim sentiment of the majority Dogra Hindu population of Jammu will be tapped.

Simultaneously, the BJP is actively wooing the Gujjars. The Gujjars and Bakarwals are a Muslim Scheduled Tribe community constituting the third largest population group in J&K after Kashmiri Muslims and Dogra Hindus. Their population is preponderant in Poonch (40 per cent) and Rajouri (33.1 per cent), followed by Udhampur and Doda in Jammu and Anantnag in Kashmir. Inhabiting areas close to the Line of Control, they suffered most during 1947 and 1965 and have been consistently pro-India - not a single Gujjar has ever joined the Kashmir militancy, for example. Indications are that the community will go with the BJP.

The BJP is also manipulating the Pahari community of Jammu by promising them Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. The Pahari community, comprising both Muslims and Hindus - largely inhabit Poonch and Rajouri. They already have a 4 per cent job reservation in J&K as a socially and educationally backward class. However, of the eight constituencies where their population has a significant presence, five have been reserved, and therefore, political leadership by default will go to the Gujjars. Therefore, the offer of ST status to the Paharis may bring prominent Pahari leaders and lawyers to support the BJP.

However, the BJP will have to win over the Paharis without upsetting the Gujjars. The difficult question for the party is whether Muslim voters among Gujjars and Paharis will vote for the BJP, given its track record of targeting Muslims in the rest of India.

Then the Congress party is still a contender in Jammu. The local belief is that if Ghulam Nabi Azad leads the Congress in the elections in Jammu, then the party could win between 10 to 15 seats. However, equally, there is uncertainty about what path Azad might take after the elections. Azad, his critics believe, could change colours after the elections and launch his own party (doing so before the polls could be politically suicidal) and form an alliance with the BJP. In Jammu, the new entrant, the Aam Adami Party, might also make its debut at the cost of the Congress. Its elected legislators, likely to be pre-poll defectors from other parties, would perhaps be the easiest for the BJP to attract.

Engineering political defections in the post-poll scenario is unlikely to attract any international criticism. After all, that is how governments are formed in other Indian states where voters have delivered a split verdict. The jostling for government formation with no single party getting a majority would appear perfectly natural in a democracy and presented to the world as 'normal'. Militancy might continue, the Valley residents might continue to seethe with anger, and the presence of security forces might not be scaled down, but the BJP would have 'integrated' J&K into India with its own chief minister at the helm.

(Bharat Bhushan is a journalist based in Delhi)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.