Imran Khan, Pakistan military face grave challenge

Pakistan’s politics is on the boil again. Eleven opposition parties, including the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam–Fazlur (JUI-F) have come together to call for the ouster of the Imran Khan government. They have formed an alliance called the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and have held two massive rallies at Gujranwala and Karachi so far.

Public unhappiness over the performance of the Khan government is high over deteriorating law and order, rising prices and food shortages and the PDM is skilfully channelling this discontent to bring down the government. Although mass protests and agitations are common in Pakistan, the current protests are significant. For one, the manner in which the PDM is taking on the military is unprecedented.

Pakistani politicians have criticised the military when in opposition, but this time PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif, who is in exile in London, has done the unthinkable. In a speech delivered remotely to tens of thousands of people at the Gujranwala rally, Sharif accused Army Chief Gen Qamar Bajwa and ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed of “rigging elections” and installing an “inefficient and incapable group of people,” in power.

Besides, he entered the lion’s den as it were, if only virtually, to do so. Gujranwala is in Punjab, where the military enjoys much support. Another unprecedented development in recent weeks is the growing rift between Sindh’s police force and the military. The Pakistani Rangers is reported to have forced the Inspector General of Police of Sindh to order the arrest of Safdar Avan, the husband of Sharif's daughter Maryam Nawaz. The disrespect meted out to their chief has not gone down well with the Sindh police force. They are reported to have gone on mass leave to protest the military action.

Opposition parties have planned more rallies and agitations across the country in the coming weeks. Unrest will grow, especially if the government arrests opposition leaders to quell it. China will be monitoring developments in Pakistan closely. It has invested billions of dollars in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. All Pakistan’s main parties support CPEC; so, whether Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is in power or not will not worry Beijing.

What Beijing needs for CPEC’s success, though, is stability in Pakistan, and it will tell the military generals to ensure this. Whether the military will call for talks between the government and the opposition parties to get the latter off the streets or whether it will prefer to use force remains to be seen. Given its record, the latter option is more likely, but it won’t be wise.