Militancy isn’t ending, it’s just shifting base

The epicentre of Kashmiri militancy, which had moved to the southern districts of the Valley since 2015, is now said to be moving back to the northern districts again. Security officials are pointing to the rising number of militant attacks and encounters, such as the 36-hour face-off between militants and security forces at Kreeri in Baramulla on August 17-18, that have taken place in recent months in North Kashmir. Militants appear to be making North Kashmir their base. Under pressure from the security forces in South Kashmir, they have shifted to the north, security officials say. It was in South Kashmir that the ‘new militancy’ emerged. Inspired by the slain Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani from Anantnag, the ‘new militancy’ drew dozens of young Kashmiris from South Kashmir districts like Pulwama and Anantnag to take up arms against the Indian State. The emergence of South Kashmir as the new epicentre of the militancy had forced the security forces to focus their attention on the southern districts. This focus resulted in the security forces successfully eliminating several militant leaders and cadres. With the network in the Valley’s southern districts largely destroyed, militants appear to have moved to the north.

While the weakening of the militant network in South Kashmir is a positive development, its shift to the northern districts is not. The northern districts of Baramulla, Kupwara and Bandipora border Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. These districts were the epicentre of the militancy for 25 years because of their proximity to POK. After training in POK, militants could slip into these districts without much trouble. Transport of weapons here was easier. Thicker forests in the northern districts provided them with better sanctuaries. By shifting base to the northern districts now, Kashmiri militants will be able to avail of these advantages again.

The militants’ shift to North Kashmir could also be a part of Pakistan’s strategy. It is possible that the ISI has accelerated infiltration of militants and weapons across the LoC into India; hence the larger number of attacks and encounters in North Kashmir. It is imperative, therefore, that India steps up vigil along the LoC in Baramulla and Kupwara. However, it must not lower its guard in South Kashmir as the underlying causes for young Kashmiris here joining the militancy have not gone away. Anger and frustration with the Indian State persists, and with the Narendra Modi government dragging its feet on initiating a political process, militant groups will continue to find a stream of willing recruits in the southern districts of the Valley, too.