Russia’s bonhomie with Pakistan a threat to India

Russia’s changing equations with India and Pakistan, which was evident during Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to New Delhi and Islamabad, is of serious concern to India. Not only are Moscow’s ties, especially on the military front, deepening but also, Russia-Pakistan co-ordination on global issues has implications for India’s security and national interests.

In Islamabad, Lavrov agreed to supply Pakistan with “special military equipment” to strengthen its counter-terrorism capabilities. The two countries will also conduct more joint military and naval exercises. They also discussed Afghanistan, on which they have developed common positions. They are also said to have discussed Kashmir. Russia’s ties with Pakistan were fraught with tension during the Cold War years but over the past decade, relations have warmed considerably. Russia’s military sales to Pakistan have increased over the years. In the past, Moscow has downplayed such sales, claiming that this was merely a commercial engagement.

It ruled out strategic motivations or implications behind the military ties. However, this has clearly changed. A growing meeting of minds, intentions and interests between Russia and Pakistan is visible. On Afghanistan, for instance, Moscow now supports the Taliban being part of an interim government and is actively co-ordinating strategies with Pakistan on the matter. Understandably, India is apprehensive.

The India-Russia military relationship remains strong. Despite the threat of US sanctions on Russia, New Delhi is likely to go ahead with purchase of S-400 missiles from Moscow. Russia on its part plans to set up a manufacturing unit in India to produce Russian weapons under the ‘Make in India’ initiative. The two sides have also started talks on creating a free trade area between India and the Eurasian Economic Union. Notwithstanding these positive developments, the India-Russia relationship is in trouble. Unlike in the past when a meeting with the Indian Prime Minister was routine for all senior visiting Russian dignitaries, this did not happen this time around.

While in Delhi, Lavrov raised the issue of Russia’s discomfort with India’s participation in the Quad, especially if the grouping turns into ‘a NATO-like entity for Asia.’ Lavrov’s cozying up to the Pakistanis is likely to have been aimed at sending India a message that Moscow is ready to deepen ties with Pakistan, if India persists with building ties with the US. Russia is already in a strong relationship with China and this together with the emerging partnership with Pakistan poses a threat to India’s security. India must take seriously the growing proximity between Moscow and Islamabad.