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Will tensions along LAC mirror instability along LoC?

The recent face-off at Galwan could mark the start of a new chapter in India-China relations and cast a shadow over all other aspects of the bilateral relationship
Last Updated 18 June 2020, 13:25 IST

In the aftermath of the deadly clashes in the Galwan River Valley in Eastern Ladakh, in which 20 Indian Army soldiers were killed by Chinese troops, a question is slowly gaining salience: Will the instability along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) turn out to be perpetually on simmer like the conflict along the Line of Control (Loc)?

Along the LoC with Pakistan, India has seen periodic occurrences of conflict escalation that has led to the death of troops, something that has been missing in the border ties with China over the last 45 years.The big number of ceasefire violations over the years along the LoC has cemented the notion of great instability along India’s border with Pakistan and has become normalised as a part of the relations between the two countries. It is now being asked whether the recent face-off at Galwan will start a similar chapter in India-China relations and cast a shadow over all other aspects of the bilateral relationship.

Race for global governance

‘Classical realism’, one of the older international relations theories, is at play along the LAC and the LoC. The theory suggests that world politics is always riddled with conflict due to nations pursuing power. When it comes to India-China relations, the pursuit for an upper-hand in global governance drives conflict, whereas along the LoC, pursuit for geopolitical power drives the conflict between India and Pakistan.

The complexity of the relationship that China and India share is a result of the evolution of both nations over time and the borders that both countries share. The simultaneous economic rise of China and India, although not equal, and their emergence as key actors in Asia and South Asia, has been an important factor in this mix.

China and India are rising powers with growing interests as well as long standing conflicts of interest. The deficit of trust between the two neighbors is caused in part as well as aggravated by the security dilemma. Each party finds it difficult to determine the true intentions of the other when it comes to the border and the usage of political economy as a weapon. From India’s point of view, a key issue is China’s expansionary plans that have taken off along with its growing economic clout across the world, but specifically in South Asia.

India’s lack of reliable allies in the region, coupled with a raging pandemic in the country and economic losses due to COVID-19 leaves it with no option but to disengage and compromise. China too is facing a severe backlash due to COVID-19, leading many powers around the world to consider a rethink of their dealings with the country. These and many other factors could force both nations to disengage and compromise.

The road ahead

Will these conditions be sufficient to push the countries towards resolving their disputes? It seems unlikely and the level of escalation of differences will depend to a great extent on how geopolitical situations evolve over the next few months.

Over the past decade-and-a-half since both parties signed the 2005 Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles, not much progress has been made in discussing a framework to determine a border demarcation on a map. The measures that have been taken are to build confidence and maintain peace and tranquility along the Himalayan border, which has not worked out well since China has been flouting the boundary line over the years.

D Suba Chandran of the National Institute of Advanced Studies, who studies armed conflicts and peace processes in South Asia, said the recent violence along the LAC and periodic tensions between the two sides over unfinalised segments of the LAC were different issues. “Until the LAC is completely demarcated, there would be periodic tensions, as has been the case earlier. But, the violence – both sides are likely to place systems that would avoid violence leading to casualties, as has been the case with the Monday/Tuesday development.”

He adds that if there is an issue with the bilateral relations between both countries, then the border is likely to be an expression of the issue and that this issue depends on whether China considers India a roadblock to its rise considering its closer relations with the US.

Major General Harsha Kakar (retd.),a former Army officer and security expert, said that India has always resorted to dialogue as a mechanism to diffuse tensions, both along the LoC and LAC but it gave up on talks shortly after Pakistani investigators were allowed to probe the 2016 Pathankot attack, when talks started to fail. However, he says that along the LAC, incidents of firing have not happened despite casualties, contrary to the situation along the Line of Control.

Importantly, he notes that the areas along the LoC are mountainous. Ingress routes and mountain tops need to be dominated to control the region, while the area along the LAC in Ladakh is flat on the Tibetan plateau. This allows for infrastructure development, taking the patrolling forward and leading to domination of a larger area. As infrastructure develops, troops are able to move faster leading to stand-offs and this infrastructure development and increased patrolling in the forward regions will continue.

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(Published 18 June 2020, 13:25 IST)

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