CMs on chopping block as churning begins in BJP

From OBC census to farmers' protest to meat ban, the party has several thorny issues to tackle as it tries to beat anti-incumbency by changing CMs

Vijay Rupani's exit in Gujarat, the changes in Uttarakhand and Karnataka are signs, political observers believe, that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) top leadership is feeling the weight of anti-incumbency amid Covid-19 mismanagement, economic decline and price rise.

Gujarat, which is among the seven states scheduled for Assembly polls in 2022, saw Vijay Rupani quit as the chief minister on Saturday. Uttarakhand, the other state in poll mode, has seen BJP replace two chief ministers since March.

The chopping and changing of chief ministers come on the heels of the BJP's loss in West Bengal and the farmers' protests in north India getting a second wind.

The BJP's nervousness is evident in the dissonance, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, in its message on crucial issues — its confusion over the demand for an OBC (Other Backward Classes) census, its policies on meat and alcohol consumption apart from cow slaughter and women's empowerment.

Also Read | Gujarat BJP legislature party likely to meet on Sunday to choose new CM

The BJP currently rules six of seven poll-bound states. In 2019, the party had won 101 of the 132 Lok Sabha seats in these states, a third of its 303 seats. Assembly polls in UP, Goa, Manipur, Punjab and Uttarakhand are scheduled for February 2022. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will go to polls in November-December 2022, and Karnataka a few months later in April 2023.

Of the seven states, Gujarat and UP have significant OBC numbers and influential non-OBC agricultural communities — the Jats in western UP and Patidars in Gujarat — both of which are demanding reservations.

Jats in UP, at least since 2013, and Patidars in Gujarat, for over two decades now, are BJP supporters.

On September 5, hundreds of thousands of Jat farmers and scores of farmers from other parts of India held a protest rally against the Centre in UP's Muzaffarnagar.

Also Read | Vijay Rupani BJP's fourth CM to be replaced in last 6 months

On September 11, as the Prime Minister was slated to inaugurate the Rs 200-crore Sardardham building, a business and social hub for the Patidar community, in Ahmedabad remotely, the social media in Gujarat was rife with anti-BJP posts.

These two events have left the BJP rattled.

"The very fact that three chief ministers (in Karnataka, Uttarakhand and now Gujarat) have been changed, two of which in poll-bound states, is evidence that things are not going the BJP's way," Radhika Ramaseshan, a political commentator, said.

"The popularity of the prime minister has taken a beating after Bihar, Delhi and Bengal polls and friction with UP CM Yogi Adityanath. The changing of chief ministers is a way to stamp his authority. The party could soon change the CM of another north Indian state it rules," said Ahmedabad-based senior journalist R K Mishra.

OBC census

The BJP has tied itself up in knots on demand for an OBC census. There is no official word either from the party or the Narendra Modi government on the issue. Modi had tried to convey an impression that he was sympathetic to the demand when he met a delegation comprising Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Tejashwi Prasad.

But party sources say the BJP hopes to strike a delicate balance in reaching out to OBCs while keeping its upper caste support base intact. The BJP fears losing this support base, particularly in UP and Uttarakhand, if the Modi government were to accept an OBC census. The upper caste population is around 25% in UP, while it is nearly 60% in Uttarakhand.

The BJP has taken the next best route to project its OBC leadership and align with smaller OBC-led political parties. After the expansion of the Union Cabinet, the BJP had stressed how it now had 27 OBC and 12 Dalit ministers.

Earlier this week, BJP president J P Nadda appointed Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the party's OBC face in Odisha, the BJP's UP in-charge for the Assembly polls. The BJP has tried its best to keep smaller OBC-led political parties, like the Apna Dal and Nishad party, as its allies. But the Jat and Patidar anger has queered the pitch for the party on the issue.

The BJP is betraying its nervousness by returning to issues such as renaming cities and upping the ante on the question of meat consumption instead of those around its governments' performance.

In UP and Uttarakhand, the BJP's plank has shifted from cow protection and anti-cow slaughter to proposing and implementing more comprehensive bans on meat and alcohol consumption.

A fortnight back, the Yogi Adityanath government banned the sale and consumption of meat and alcohol in a 10 square km area of Mathura, considered the birthplace of Lord Krishna. In March, the Uttarakhand government banned slaughterhouses in Haridwar.

Dilemma within

The BJP leaders would likely promise poll-bound Goa and Manipur voters that it would not unleash any such bans in those two states.

But how would the BJP convince voters in the larger Northeast after a recent law in Assam? The BJP-ruled Assam passed a law on August 13 that has further curtailed cow slaughter and transportation of cattle in the state. Beef-consuming northeastern states are concerned about their beef supply, which mostly comes from Assam.

A BJP leader in Meghalaya, Sanbor Shullai, recently included in BJP-ally Conrad Sangma's council of ministers, has asked people to consume more beef than chicken, mutton or fish. He promised to talk to Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma to ensure uninterrupted supply.

A recent editorial in the Nagaland Post feared the BJP was extending the cow belt politics of cow vigilantism to the Northeast. An Assam-based politician, who did not want to be named, said Sarma did not have beef consumption issues when he was a minister in the Sarbananda Sonowal government from 2016 to 2021.

The BJP's dissonance is evident in women's safety and empowerment, which has gripped social media ever since the Taliban's win in Afghanistan. Groups sympathetic to the BJP have launched a social media campaign to show how the party has prevented the Taliban influence in India.

In UP, Yogi Adityanath is at pains to showcase his government's efforts to ensure women's safety and security. His government, however, is facing constant flak for several crimes against women and the administration's failure to investigate these properly. The Opposition has also pointed to Adityanath's previous statements that women require protection and not be given independence.

But as political scientist Ajit Jha points out, none of these contradictions might affect the BJP's electoral success in the absence of a credible alternative in the forthcoming Assembly polls, as happened in Delhi and Bengal.

"For all its faults, voters believe the BJP is the only party that can keep the unity and integrity of the country intact. It has become the default choice. Political parties need to talk not merely about the fragments of Indian society, which turns away voters from them, but draw from nationalism rooted in the belief of a united India and question BJP," Jha says.

Watch latest DH videos here