With BJP's social engineering getting a jolt after a number of its OBC leaders joined the Samajwadi Party, the saffron party is all set to deepen its hardline Hindutva approach to work out a caste neutral narrative.
The thinking in the party to field Yogi Adityanth from the nerve centre of Hindutva politics Ayodhya is mainly to do with giving a Hindutva face to BJP's poll strategy.
PM Narendra Modi is Lok Sabha MP from another seat of BJP's Hindutva politics Varanasi. The party is likely to field a senior leader from Mathura seat in Western UP from where Hema Malini is MP.
Options before the BJP are few as BSP is silently moving ahead to revive its 2007 winning formaulae of Dalit Brahmin and Muslims, which was once the Congress winning combination while Congress seeks to dent the caste neutral constituence of women which had backed Modi-led BJP in UP since 2014.
BSP has announced having given 90 among 300 tickets to Dalits. In the last Assembly polls, the BSP had given tickets to nearly 100 Muslim candidates. Dalits are nearly 20% of the population, Brahmins 13% and Muslims around 19%.
On Thursday when Priyanka Gandhi announced the names of 50 women candidates among a total of 125, she claimed how Congress has already brought women in the mainstream of political discourse, reminding how after her promise of giving 50 percent tickets to women, Modi had to organize an all woman event at women in Prayagraj, Mayawati plans to address a woman rally and SP's Akhilesh Yadav reached out to women. The congress gave 40 per cent tickets to women and 40 per cent to youths, the two segments, which have overwhelmingly voted for BJP in the last few elections. Even if Congress does not win these seats, this could damage BJP's prospects.
A key highlight of Congress candidates list Unnao rape victim's mother Asha Singh from Unnao in which a former BJP law maker was convicted in 2019. In a veiled attack on the ruling BJP, Priyanka said her party has fielded such candidates who have struggled for seeking justice in Uttar Pradesh.
As such BJP goes back to its forte. To woo back Brahmins, BJP is banking big on its Law Minister Brajesh Pathak who was once second most important Brahmin leader in BSP after Satish Chandra Mishra.
Five months after laying the foundation stone of Ram Mandir on August 5, Modi had inaugurated the the first phase of the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor project last month amid scores of BJP leaders raising the issue of Krishna Janmabhoomi in Mathura as well.
With the exit of non-Yadav OBC leaders, particularly from the Kushwaha community continuing along with some Brahmin leaders, the BJP will have to fall back on its best bait hardline Hindutva, which had given it a good strike rate along with the development plank which the saffron party has sought to reinforce with Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurating a slew of development projects in the state close to the announcement of poll dates.
While the appeal of Hindutva politics has not got much traction among Kushwahas (koiris), BJP has found it easier to reach out with this some other OBC communities like Nishad or Mallah (boatmen) and has often latched on the Kevatraj reference from the Ramayana (boatmen, who had taken Rama, Sita and Lakshman in his boat and crossed the Ganges at the time of exile).
One flip side of Swami Prasad Maurya and his team walking out of BJP is that allies like Nishad Party of Sanjay Nishad will get a better deal when the BJP and allies announce their seats. Mallahs comprise around 4.5% of votes and are divided into 27 sub-castes, they influence outcomes in over 100 constituencies in the state. Bandit Queen Phoolan Devi" was the most prominent leader from the community and had become an MP from Samajwadi Party.
Also, Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal (S) could get more seats than it expected. Patel is the daughter of Sone Lal Patel, who had organised a ‘Kurmi Rajnitik Chetna Maha Rally’ in Lucknow against the Yadav domination of OBC politics way back in 1994. Kurmis are 9% of the total state population almost equal to Yadavs. BJP had in past attempted to deepen Hindutva imprint among Kurmis and Lodhs (caste of former BJP CM Kalyan Singh)
The challenge before the BJP now is to save its core — Brahmin, Baniya, Thakur — and the remaining most Backward Classes votes along with the non-Jatav Dalits. BJP has repeatedly reached out to the Valmiki community among Dalits as also the Pasis and often referred to as the author of the Ramayana Sant Valmiki.
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