Northeastern states and the Bimaru leaders Uttar Pradesh and Bihar top the list of states that have better managed or controlled the pandemic, while larger states like Maharashtra and Rajasthan and Himachal are at the bottom, says a report.
According to an analysis of the monthly infection numbers between April and November by SBI Research, estimated number of cases is 99.29 lakh which is 4.66 lakh higher than the actual confirmed cases of 94.63 lakh, indicating that we have done a fairly good job on controlling the virus.
The state's ranking is based on the performance on pandemic management, macro parameters (fiscal parameters and retail price inflation) and their performance on the various central schemes.
For assessing the pandemic management, primarily four indicators -- the gap between the actual number of caseloads and the estimated cases based, and the possible number of under-reporting, recovery rate and death rate -- were used. The results show that the northeast tops the list followed by Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, while Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Himachal are at the bottom.
Secondly, for macro indicators, deviation of GST collection from the state budget estimates, market borrowings and retail inflation are used wherein too the northeast, Himachal and MP are at the top, and Bihar, Andhra and Bengal are at the bottom.
Thirdly, on performance of the central schemes, state-wise performance is taken for five schemes, the one nation one card, PM Svanidhi, PM Samman, ECLGS and PMAY and in their implementation UP, Gujarat and Maharashtra lead, while Goa, Bengal and Chhattisgarh are at the bottom.
“By combining the scores attained on each of the three parameters, states' ranking reveals that the northeastern states are at the top, followed by UP and MP and Chhattisgarh, while Bengal and Himachal are at the bottom.
“While Chhattisgarh and Bengal have consistently been worse in all three parameters, Himachal has done quite well in macro management but seems to be lagging in central scheme implementation and the pandemic management,” says the report.
The report goes onto to say that the states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Bengal, Delhi and Goa have done badly in managing the pandemic, with estimated cases lower than the actual cases, while UP, Bihar, Gujarat and Jharkhand among others have managed it quite well with estimated cases more than their actual cases,” says the report.
For the pandemic management, the analysis is based on the data wherein it was shown that the states with lower number of actual cases compared to estimated cases are considered better than others.
The second indicator is the estimated number of under-reporting of cases. Lower the under-reported cases the better for the state. Lastly, recovery rate and death rate are used for each state. Higher recovery rate and lower death rate are considered better.