With inflation moderating and interest rates approaching their last leg of hike, global growth is expected to bottom out at 2.8 per cent in calendar year 2023 and rebound to 3 per cent in 2024, financial services provider Emkay Wealth Management said during a media roundtable discussion on Thursday.
Amidst this, India stands out as a shining star growing faster than the rest of the world. Growth however, is tapering down as it is no more insulated from the rest of the world. FY24 is expected to be further slower in growth, said Ashish Ranawade, Head of Products, Emkay Wealth Management.
“We expect a lower double-digit growth for the Indian market in FY24 provided there are no major negative surprises,” added Dr Joseph K Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management.
With all the three primary asset classes - equity, fixed income and gold - in play, Emkay Wealth advised judicious exposure. “Selective small and mid-caps can outperform as the valuation gap with larger peers closes,” it said. The firm also preferred structural growth companies over cyclical ones as the peak of the commodity cycle is behind us.
“Strong India growth can support higher valuations in the medium term,” Emkay Wealth added.
Moving forward, the prospects for investment in gold are pretty bright, it added. “A mild recession and weaker equity earnings in the US are positive for gold,” the company reasoned. Furthermore the tailwinds for the INR are always positive for domestic prices of gold. Any escalation of geopolitical tension may create an uncertain global macroeconomic situation and thereby push up gold prices, it said.
While a wider import-export gap and an adverse impact of El-Nino comprise potential headwinds, sound credit growth, investment inflows, tax collections, private sector capex and banking health stand as positive factors propelling the economy forward.