India's October retail inflation increased to nearly 4.50 per cent from 4.35 per cent in September on higher food prices but it still remained within the RBI’s target range of 6 per cent.
Industrial output growth too came down to 3.1 per cent per cent in September, mainly due to the waning low base effect but the manufacturing sector, which constitutes nearly 78 per cent of the index of industrial production, finished on solid footing, growing by 2.7 per cent.
This is the fourth successive month that the retail inflation print has come below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper margin of 6 per cent. This is the last retail inflation data before the monetary policy on December 8 when it is likely to retain the key policy repo rate at 4 per cent.
RBI mainly factors in CPI-based inflation while arriving at its monetary policy decisions. It has been tasked by Parliament to keep it at 4 per cent with a tolerance band of 2 per cent on either side. The central bank has projected the CPI inflation at 5.35 per cent for 2021-22.
A sharp rise in oil prices, both transport and edible – kept the food inflation high. Meat and fish prices too saw an increase of over 7 per cent while that of pulses and products gained more than 5 per cent and milk rose over 3 per cent
Fuel and light segment too rose over 14 per cent in October, housing got dearer by 3.54 per cent.
On the industrial output side, mining sector output rose 8.6 per cent in September, while power generation increased 0.9 per cent.
The data showed waning of the low base effect in October. The IIP growth witnessed double-digit growth from May onwards this year, mainly due to the lower base effect.
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