It said the outlook for India’s trade has brightened with good growth of 29.5 per cent during the April-December, 2010-11, period. Imports grew by 19 per cent during the period.
“Current indications are that India will not only achieve the target of US$200 billion but surpass it in 2010-11... The gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures by India and other countries is not likely to adversely affect India’s rising exports,” the survey said.
However, it said there is a need to remain vigilant about any fallout from the financial turbulence in the euro zone and the new disturbances in the Middle East.
It said that the slowdown in import growth from October, 2010, and a rise in exports from November, 2010, has helped bridge the trade gap.
“Although the concerns on the trade deficit front have subsided with a pickup in exports in the last five months and slowdown in imports in the last three months of 2010-11 (April-December), the situation needs to be watched,” it said.
Also, the deceleration in the net surplus of services trade is a “cause of worry” on the “current account deficit,” it added.
Further, it said that the rising inflation could erode agricultural exports. “This has necessitated the formation of a systematic inflation-tackling mechanism with early warning systems, rather than resorting to ad hoc policy measures,” the survey said.
During April-December period of current fiscal, outbound shipments grew by 29.5 per cent to US$164.7 billion.
Imports during April-December, 2010, stood at US$246.72 billion, as against US$207.31 billion over the same period last year. The trade deficit during April-December stood at US$82 billion, marginally higher than US$80.13 billion in the corresponding period last fiscal. The survey said the country needs to focus more on engineering sector exports, which contribute over 20 per cent to total merchandise shipments.
On services exports, it said that India is moving towards services-dominated export growth.