According to the latest Global Migration and Remittances brief brought out by World Bank, Indians working abroad will remit $58 billion (Rs 300,000 crore) in 2011 topping the list of countries, second time in a row. China with an estimated remittance of $57 billion will be the second.
At $58 billion, Indian remittances will be 9.5 per cent higher than $53.1 billion sent in 2010. The reason for such a huge jump – the average annual growth in the last five years was around 5.5 per cent, World Bank says was mainly due to the fact that Indians are sending more money home to benefit from falling rupee.
People working in Gulf nations that include Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, who contribute a third of India’s total remittances, are rushing to send funds back home as local currencies of all these countries have appreciated against rupee.
According to reports, Indians in Gulf countries are withdrawing their term deposits in local banks and are even borrowing from banks and friends to send money back home.
Of course, the extremely low (some time near zero) interest rates in USA, UK, Germany, France and Japan, offers a huge arbitrage opportunity for the Indians.
The fall of rupee and the rush of NRI deposits, however, have given a new headache to banks: the burden of currency fluctuations when the deposits are repatriated. According to the RBI data, at the end of June 2011, India’s external debt outstanding on account of NRI deposits was at $52.90 billion and a currency depreciation of 17 per cent means an additional repayment burden of $9 billion or Rs 46,000 crore.
The World Bank report says developing countries as a whole are expected to receive a total of $351 billion in foreign remittances in 2011 and in all, worldwide remittances — including those to high-income countries — will reach $ 406 billion in the current calendar year.
The World Bank said though the economic slowdown is dampening employment prospects for migrant workers in some high-income countries, global remittances are expected to stay on a growth path and are forecast to reach $515 billion by 2014.
Of the amount, $441 billion (86 per cent) will flow to developing countries.
“Despite the global economic crisis that has impacted private capital flows, remittance flows to developing countries have remained resilient, posting an estimated growth of 8 per cent in 2011,” said Hans Timmer, the Director of the bank’s Development Prospects Group. “Remittance flows to all developing regions have grown this year, for the first time since the financial crisis,” he said.