RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav (L); Bihar CM Nitish Kumar (C); and Jan Suraj Party leader Prashant Kishor.
Credit: PTI Photos
Patna: Barely two days are left before the first vote is cast in Bihar on November 6. However, the question which is uppermost in everyone’s mind is who is going to romp home this time?
Well, no political pundit, worth his salt, can answer this, but by all indications the Bihar battle is headed for a nail-biting finish. And, there are four prime reasons behind this close fight.
Direct contest
First, the ‘Mahabharat’ for wresting Bihar started with a triangular contest between the NDA, I.N.D.I.A. bloc and a new entrant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj. Within a month, it has turned into a direct fight between the NDA and the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. The poll strategist-turned-politician, Prashant Kishor, who hogged the nationwide limelight for working with all the top politicians, could not draw a proper strategy for his newbie outfit. And the day the 'over-rated' Kishor himself opted out of the poll fray, his pocket organisation Jan Suraaj lost the battle even before it could start in right earnest.
Electoral maths
Second, and the most important factor, is electoral maths. During the 2020 Assembly polls, both the NDA and the Mahagatbandhan got 37 per cent votes each, with the meagre difference of 0.03 per cent. In terms of votes, it was 12,700. But, this miniscule difference in votes resulted in the NDA bagging 125 seats, while the Mahagatbandhan was restricted to 110, although Tejashwi’s RJD emerged as the single largest party in the 243-member House.
Almost a similar situation is emerging this time. The only difference being addition of Chirag Paswan’s 6 per cent additional votes to the NDA, while deletion of 3 per cent of Mukesh Sahani (who was with NDA in 2020) votes. This comes to around 40 per cent votes, which the NDA could expect this time.
The Mahagatbandhan, which bagged 37 per cent votes in 2020, could be assured of minimum 40 per cent votes this time with the addition of 3 per cent votes of Mukesh Sahani, who has been projected as Deputy CM of the Opposition alliance.
‘Enemy within'
Third factor is the ‘enemy within’. In theory, both the camps pose the picture of unity and reiterate “all is well” while giving one byte after another. However, the ground reality is the JD (U) is suspicious of the BJP (as neither Narendra Modi nor Amit Shah have ever once said that Nitish will be CM post-poll) as much as the BJP is suspicious of the JD (U), with the grapevine abuzz that Nitish won’t take a minute before doing a somersault if he finds BJP has played foul with him.
Mahagatbandhan too is facing a similar internecine war with 11 such seats in the fray where the allies are fighting amongst each other more than fighting their common rival NDA.
Ladies first
Fourth reason is women voters, who constitute 3.5 crore of all the 7.4 crore eligible voters, post-SIR exercise in Bihar. The trend, since the 2010 elections, shows that women in droves have rooted for Nitish for his welfare schemes for girls/women, thereby enabling the ‘Sushshan Babu’ to remain at the helm for two decades. However, Tejashwi too has promised the moon. His lofted assurances which include Rs 30,000 salary for numerically-strong Jeevika Didis, health insurance and a promise of Rs 2500 per month under Mai-Behan Yojna for women may fetch him rich dividends.
“As of now, it's a straight and close fight between the NDA and the INDIA bloc. However, even a one per cent swing can tilt the balance either side,” opined a senior Editor of a vernacular daily, who has covered Bihar since 1995.