Ashish Ranjan
Credit: Special Arrangement
Bihar's electoral landscape has long been characterised by identity-based mobilisation, with caste and religion serving as primary axes of political competition. While identity politics broadly pervades electoral politics across the country, Bihar warrants particular attention for two reasons. First, alongside West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, Bihar represents an exception to the post-Mandal dominance of the two national parties – BJP and Congress – in major state politics. Second, persistent economic underdevelopment has transformed caste-based representation from merely a political strategy into a mechanism of collective empowerment.
The 2025 Assembly election, however, signals a significant evolution in Bihar's electoral discourse. Identity-based appeals have been supplemented, even if not superseded, by an employment-centric narrative, cutting across political formations. This discursive shift correlates closely with the state's demographic composition: Election Commission data indicates that 46% of Bihar's 7.41 crore registered voters are aged 18-39, with 22% falling in the 18-29 age bracket, rendering employment the pivotal electoral issue.
Migration and Women's Vote
Bihar faces another critical economic challenge: large-scale out-migration. According to the 2011 Census, approximately 75 lakh people from Bihar have migrated to other states for employment, representing roughly 10% of the state's total electorate. This exodus created a turnout imbalance, elevating women voters into a decisive constituency in recent elections.
Women constitute 48% of Bihar's electorate. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has systematically cultivated this constituency through targeted initiatives: bicycles for schoolgirls, scholarships for girls completing 10th, 12th standards and graduation, reservations in panchayat and municipal elections, and subsequently 35% reservation in government jobs. This strategic cultivation bore fruit in the 2020 Assembly elections, where women voters proved crucial to the NDA's survival.
The 2020 election patterns are instructive: In Phase 1, women's turnout lagged men's by 2% and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) swept that phase. In Phase 2, women's turnout surpassed men's, giving the NDA an edge. In Phase 3, women's turnout exceeded men's by over 10%, and the NDA dominated. Of JD(U)'s 43 seats, 37 were won in constituencies where women's turnout exceeded men's.
While women remain the backbone of NDA's support base, Tejaswi Yadav's promise of a Rs 2,500 monthly payment for every woman has generated significant buzz. Evidence from other state elections suggests women voters respond strongly to economic incentives beyond identity or ideological frameworks. In response, the Nitish Kumar government disbursed a one-time payment of Rs 10,000 under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana to 1.21 crore women, a clear acknowledgement of anti-incumbency fears.
Youth Unemployment, Debt Traps
Two constituencies drive this anti-incumbency: unemployed youth and financially distressed women. The latter group has become increasingly vulnerable to predatory non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) offering high-interest loans with aggressive recovery practices. The NBFC disbursements in Bihar reached Rs 49,500 crores by 2023, an 82-fold increase from just Rs 600 crores in 2020. This explosive growth has trapped thousands of families in debt cycles, adding economic anxiety to the electoral equation.
Whether these twin issues, unemployment and the NBFC debt crisis, will translate into decisive anti-incumbency against the Nitish Kumar-led NDA remains to be seen. However, the economic distress among Biharis is undeniable.
New political entrant Prashant Kishor has spent three years touring the state, serving as a catalyst in amplifying discourse around unemployment and migration. Yet his party faces a fundamental constraint: lacking an established organisational base, its ability to convert popular sentiment into electoral gains remains uncertain.
The critical question is whether Tejashwi Yadav can harness anti-incumbency sentiment as effectively as he did in the 2020 election. November 14 will provide the answer.
(The writer is an election researcher and a co-founder of Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies)