The BJP has incumbent governments in two of the six states slated for Assembly polls this year, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh.
In both states, party strategists are nervous about the mounting anti-incumbency because of allegations of corruption or a sense of fatigue with the current local leadership.
The BJP believes it could still return to power on the back of improved performances by smaller parties — such as the AIMIM, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) — eating into the vote share of the Congress in the two states.
In Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, the waning charisma of the respective Chief Ministers — Basavaraj Bommai and Shivraj Singh Chouhan — has contributed to the party’s woes, BJP sources admitted.
Bommai has proved to be an ineffective successor to B S Yediyurappa in Bengaluru.
In Bhopal, Chouhan has been the chief minister for over 15 years since 2005 barring a 15-month interval from December 2018 to March 2020 and is facing a fatigue factor.
A party strategist said the BJP was hopeful Chouhan would succeed in rebranding himself after announcing a Rs 1,000 monthly stipend to all women from low-income families. Under Chouhan, MP has recorded a 7.7 per cent increase in agricultural growth, the highest in India.
But the BJP is hopeful of an improved BSP performance in the December 2023 polls. The BSP’s failure to put up a robust fight in 2018 hurt the BJP, the source said.
Similarly, the AIMIM fielding candidates in 20 of MP’s 230 Assembly seats where Muslim voters play a significant factor could help the BJP, as might the AAP‘s entry.
The run-up to the MP elections could see the resurgence of tribal parties, such as the Gondwana Ganatantra Party and the nascent Jai Yuva Adivasi Shakti.
In Karnataka, sources said the BJP faces a robust Congress organisation led by influential Congress leaders representing nearly all key castes - Siddaramaiah, Mallikarjun Kharge, D K Shivkumar and M B Patil.
Here again, the Janata Dal (Secular) presence in southern Karnataka and the entry of AIMIM and AAP would make electoral contests multi-cornered and help the BJP, or so is its assessment.
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