Voters wait to cast their votes in Budgam district of central Kashmir. (Image for representational purposes.)
Credit: PTI Photo
Srinagar: The Budgam Assembly by-election in central Kashmir, scheduled for November 11, has turned into a fierce and deeply personal contest — not just between political parties, but within one of the Valley’s most influential Shia families.
Three heavyweight clerics, each bearing the title “Aga” and hailing from prominent religious lineages, are pitted against one another, making this one of the most intriguing political battles in Kashmir’s recent history.
The bypoll was necessitated after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah vacated the Budgam seat, opting to retain Ganderbal — the constituency long considered his family’s bastion — following the 2024 Assembly elections. The National Conference (NC) had won Budgam comfortably last year, with Omar securing over 54 per cent of the votes.
However, his departure has reopened old rivalries and exposed sharp divisions within the Shia clerical class that has dominated Budgam’s social and political landscape for decades.
This time, the contest is three-cornered — and intensely personal. The NC has fielded Aga Syed Mehmood, a seasoned cleric-politician who enjoys the party’s organisational backing and a legacy of association with the Aga family.
The PDP’s candidate, Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, represents the rival faction of the same extended family and is banking on anti-NC sentiment among younger voters.
The BJP, meanwhile, has thrown its weight behind Aga Syed Mohsin, in what is widely seen as a symbolic bid to penetrate a Valley constituency through a candidate with local religious credibility.
Budgam, which has one of the largest concentrations of Shia Muslims in Kashmir, has long been considered a political stronghold of the Aga family. Historically, its clerics have balanced religious influence with political ambition. But this bypoll has fractured that unity, with each Aga claiming to be the true representative of the Shia community’s political aspirations.
Adding another layer of complexity, NC leader and MP Aga Ruhullah, himself an influential Shia figure with considerable sway in Budgam, has decided not to campaign for his party’s candidate. He has left it to the people to make their own decision. Ruhullah has been at odds with the NC leadership over several issues, including the fight for the restoration of Article 370 and what he calls the “rationalization of reservation policy.”
His absence from the campaign could dent NC’s support among a section of Shia voters who view him as their most credible voice.
Political analysts say the fight has quickly turned personal and emotional. “This is no longer just NC versus PDP versus BJP,” said a political observer in Srinagar. “It’s about leadership and legitimacy within the Shia clerical hierarchy. Each Aga is defending his turf, his following, and his family’s prestige.”
The tone of the campaign reflects that intensity. The three camps have been holding parallel religious gatherings, public meetings, and door-to-door canvassing, each invoking community service and spiritual lineage to connect with voters. The rhetoric, at times, has been barbed — with subtle accusations of betrayal and opportunism circulating in Budgam’s political grapevine.
While NC enters the contest as the favourite — given its 2024 performance – the Sunni Muslim population vote which is over 70 percent could make the outcome unpredictable. The PDP hopes to consolidate disenchanted NC supporters and younger Shia voters seeking change.
The BJP, even if not in contention to win, aims to expand its presence in central Kashmir, where it has so far struggled to find a foothold. For the saffron party, even a respectable performance by Aga Mohsin would be a symbolic gain.
Interestingly, the bypoll in Nagrota coincides with Budgam’s high-stakes contest. In Nagrota, the BJP is defending its stronghold after the death of senior leader Devender Singh Rana last year. His daughter, Devyani Rana, is contesting on a BJP ticket, facing NC and independent challengers in what has become a triangular fight. The Congress has opted out in favour of its ally NC, making Nagrota a test of opposition unity in the Jammu region.
The simultaneous bypolls — one in the heart of the Valley and the other in Hindu-majority Jammu — encapsulate the political divide of Jammu and Kashmir. In Budgam, regional parties are battling to protect traditional bastions, while in Nagrota, the BJP is on the defensive, striving to retain dominance in its core turf.
Meanwhile, Omar Abdullah said the results of the bypolls would have no bearing on the stability of his government. “This election is not aimed at choosing the government. It is already there and will remain there even after the polls are over,” he said while campaigning for the party candidate in Nagrota.