Voters in 57 seats in 10 eastern districts of Uttar Pradesh cast their votes on Thursday, whose outcome will largely hinge on parties’ deft handling of caste arithmetic in a region that lacks a “pan-state leader”.
While BSP supremo Mayawati accused rivals of being ‘casteist’, the BJP has offered the voters a cocktail of communally charged rhetoric and development plus a security pitch.
Notwithstanding the salvos, there is no getting away from the reality of caste, which explains the aggressive wooing of caste parties by the BJP and the SP in socially complex eastern UP (Purvanchal), where the saffron party had won 115 of the 156 seats in the 2017 Assembly polls.
While the BJP is banking on its alliance with Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal and the Nishad Party, the SP’s hope rests on extending its OBC appeal beyond Yadavs, for which it has cobbled up an alliance with small but influential caste parties like Om Prakash Rajbhar’s SBSP, Mahan Dal and Apna Dal (Kamerawadi).
There is no monolithic upper caste, OBC and Dalit vote bank in the region.
Getting the caste dynamics right would mean taking into account the Most Backward Castes (MBC) among OBCs, the Mahadalits among Dalits and the upper caste Thakur versus Brahmin political rivalry.
“When it comes to eastern UP, all parties keep their fingers crossed as there is a scramble for power sharing among all the social groups. There is no caste leader, who can claim pan-state influence,” says political analyst Rasheed Kidwai.
The alliance with Rajbhar’s SBSP had helped the BJP in a big way in eastern UP in the last election. Rajbhar, a minister in Yogi government, has now switched sides to the SP after being sacked from the BJP government in 2019.
Nishads are mostly sticking with the BJP. The Nishad Party is fighting on 16 seats in entire UP (11 on Nishad Party symbol and five on BJP symbol) and has predicted an ‘earthquake’ in favour of the BJP. Polls in eastern UP will also reveal the impact of the departure of Swami Prasad Maurya, a prominent Kushwaha leader, from the BJP to the SP.
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