Three developments have set the stage for the 30th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which will start at Brazil’s Amazonian city Belém on November 10.
At the UN General Assembly, President Donald Trump returned to climate denialism, dismissing climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world” – nine months after he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement again. Microsoft Czar Bill Gates has penned a memo noting that it would be better to focus on improving health and prosperity to fight the consequences of climate change as people would continue to live even after emission cut targets would be breached and the earth would become warmer. And, thirdly, Azerbaijan and Brazil – the COP presidents of last year and this year – have released the Baku to Belém Roadmap that underlined that the world would be needing $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 and last year’s agreed climate finance of $300 billion was vastly inadequate.
These issues are likely to provide the backdrop for the nations to argue on how to reduce the impacts of global warming, caused by loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere for over a century.
They will submit their plans of cutting down their emissions in the next decades. But it is now clear that these Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are not good enough to restrict the rise of temperature below two degrees Celsius, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius, as agreed upon in the Paris Agreement.
A new UN report put the global warming projection over this century, based on full implementation of the NDCs, at 2.3-2.5°C; while those based on current policy at 2.8°C. This is a marginal improvement from last year, but way below what's needed.
Annual emissions are to be cut by 35% and 55%, compared with 2019 levels, in 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively. Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them and a challenging political climate, the 1.5°C barrier is very likely to be broken within the next decade.
Gates argues that such a temperature rise is eventual, and it will be better to prepare people on how to live in a warming climate with, by improving their health and wealth – a view with many takers.
This would be discussed threadbare at Belém where adaptation indicators may end up as a headline issue. Climate adaptation means preparing communities for rising temperatures, floods, droughts and storms, for example, by building sea walls, restoring forests or planting resilient crops.
But global progress on adaptation has been slow, limited and fragmented. At COP28, it was decided to have a global framework on climate resilience. At Belem, the countries are to finalise 100 indicators to track progress.
Access to finance and technology will also remain on the agenda. The Baku to Belém roadmap will be a priority for both presidencies after Azerbaijan received widespread flak last year for agreeing to a climate finance of $300 billion.
The developing world makes it clear that the flow of funds and technology from the rich world – responsible for global warming in the first place – has been below par over the years and so the climate finance would have to be additional in nature. In the absence of the United States, it will be interesting to see what role China – the world’s biggest emitter – will play.
While India will stick to its stated position of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capabilities, New Delhi will be under focus for being one of the top emitters. The updated NDC and position on local adaptation may become crucial to thwart such scrutiny.