With its influence waning in one more state, the CPI(M) is now staring at the possibility of not being on India’s governance map if it cannot retain Kerala in 2026.
In such a scenario, India will not have a Left government in any of its states for the first time in 49 years. The CPI(M)-led Left Front governments ruled West Bengal between 1977 and 2011, Tripura for 25 years from 1993 and Kerala in intervals.
Tripura appears to be going the West Bengal way for the CPI(M), as they are losing power after being in power for decades. This would leave the party with just a single stronghold of Kerala, and even there are party is battling controversies, which could make the fight tough three years later.
Tripura results show that the CPI(M), which believes it is amplifying the “right voices”, needs to find out what it lacks in attracting votes and youths. It also showed that the Left is not being able to tap the anti-BJP votes, which they say are growing due to the Modi government’s policies. One of the challenges will be to place it as a viable alternative to young voters.
Though there was only a flicker of hope in Tripura to oust the BJP, the CPI(M) was expecting a better run this time, thanks to a rejuvenated cadre as well as decisions like benching former Chief Minister Manik Sarkar, projecting Jitendra Choudhary as its face and aligning with the Congress.
However, nothing worked in its favour as it could not retain last time’s numbers, settling at 11 seats, and losing the Leader of Opposition post to Tipra Motha though it helped Congress climb from zero to three seats. Vote share does not show Congress votes falling into CPI(M) basket – the Left party’s vote share tumbled down to 24.62% from 42.22% while Congress rose from 1.79% to 8.57%.
Though they were happy with the way its cadres worked during the elections, the CPI(M) leadership was resigned to the fact that it may barely touch double digits.
A senior leader said the Bengali Hindus rallied behind the BJP in Tripura like elsewhere in the north-east and they could not break this consolidation.
The CPI(M) also lost tribal votes though Pradyot Debabarma’s Tipra Motha, which the Left party was actively but unsuccessfully wooing into an alliance, did manage almost half of the 20 reserved seats.
An analysis showed that Congress and CPI(M) won most of the seats against the BJP where Tipra Mortha was absent, making it amply clear why the CPI(M) was keen on the tribal party to be in its fold.
Making Choudhary, a tribal, the CPI(M) face and ensuring that Sarkar, who had earned the wrath of tribals, remained in the background did not help the CPI(M).
A quick analysis by CPI(M) leaders said that its cadres were “much activated” before elections but “maybe it was a little too late”. The leaders argue that the “connect and contact” with people was eroded even in its 16 sitting seats due to the “violence” unleashed by the BJP cadre.
While the leadership is clear about the need for unity among secular and democratic forces to fight the BJP, the results may also lead to murmurs in the CPI(M) over alliance with the Congress, as it appeared that the coalition did not electorally benefit the Left as was the case in West Bengal in 2016 when both were in an unofficial alliance. Congress had then won more seats than the CPI(M) and had become the Leader of the Opposition.
However, this may lead to another crisis in the party. Kerala CPI(M) Secretary MV Govindan has put it in perspective as the results poured in: win or loss, the decision on alliance in Tripura was right as Congress alone cannot fight the BJP.