India Meteorological Department on Tuesday said the country would receive 103 per cent of average rainfall between June and September, making 2022 the fourth consecutive year of normal monsoon, the lifeblood of the Indian economy.
The new forecast is an upgrade of the IMD’s April prediction when the weather bureau said the southwest monsoon would bring 99 per cent of the average rainfall (87 cm).
Of the four regions, the central and peninsular India would receive “above normal” rainfall (106 per cent of the average or more), whereas northwest and northeast India would receive normal rainfall. The forecast of 103 per cent of average rainfall comes with an error margin of 4 per cent on either side.
The seasonal rainfall for the monsoon core zone ranging from Gujarat and Rajasthan on the west and Odisha and West Bengal on the east would be 106 per cent of the average. This is an area, where agriculture is primarily dependent on southwest monsoon.
With the inflation rising to eight-year high, a spell of good rains could lift farm productivity, expand the economic growth and keep a lid on inflation.
One of the world's biggest producers and consumers of farm goods, India relies on monsoon rains to water almost half its farmland, which lacks irrigation. Farming contributes around 15 per cent to India's $2.7 trillion economy while sustaining more than half the population of 130 crore.
The forecast increases the chances of India recording four consecutive years of normal monsoon after a decade. The last time such a trend was noticed, happened a decade ago in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013. Another such spell came between 2005 and 2008.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapaptra said the agency upgraded its forecast after it was noticed that the prevailing La Nina conditions – cooling of the Pacific Ocean, which is beneficial for Indian monsoon - were likely to continue for the rest of the monsoon season.
Another weather parameter known as Indian Ocean Dipole – a temperature seesaw between the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal – is also likely to turn favourable for a good monsoon this year.
Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala on May 29, three days ahead of the normal date June 1. Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Konkan and Goa, northeastern states and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during next 2-3 days
Mohapatra said June would be receiving normal rainfall, which would be anywhere between 92-108 per cent of the long period average rainfall (16.54 cm).
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