It is no secret that Siddaramaiah is a contender for the chief minister’s chair - his shot at a second term - if the Congress wins Karnataka in 2023.
But, where will he contest from? Such is the unenviable situation that Siddaramaiah, arguably the most popular Congress leader in the state, finds himself in with elections just a little over a year away.
Siddaramaiah currently represents Badami in Bagalkot district where he faces a possible revolt. Former Badami legislator B B Chimmanakatti, who vacated his seat to make way for Siddaramaiah, has publicly said the former chief minister is not welcome to re-contest.
Chimmanakatti has his reasons: He said he vacated Badami in 2018 on the condition that he would be made an MLC, an unkept promise. The ex-MLA also said that he got reduced a “mouse” from the “tiger” that he was, all thanks to Siddaramaiah.
In 2018, Siddaramaiah was the incumbent CM when he chose to contest from two seats - Chamundeshwari and Badami. He vacated his Varuna seat for his son Dr Yathindra’s political debut.
Party leaders frowned upon the double-contest move. But Siddaramaiah had little choice: the writing was on the wall that Chamundeshwari would be a difficult mountain to scale, which took him to a ‘safer’ Badami where votes of the Kuruba community, to which he and Chimmanakatti belong, are sizable.
He lost badly in Chamundeshwari, while 1,696 was his victory margin in Badami. The defeat in Chamundeshwari, a segment he represented five times, was so humiliating that Siddaramaiah has said he will never contest there again.
Siddaramaiah had kept the Badami option open, but few know if that has changed after Chimmanakatti’s rebuke.
So, if it’s not Chamundeshwari and if Badami is looking tricky, what are Siddaramaiah’s options? Siddaramaiah has maintained that he will take a call on the constituency in the election year only.
A Congress leader tells DH that more than Chimmanakatti’s opposition, Badami would be a bad choice because of the distance. “The constituency is too far away, which is why he is likely to look for something closer to Bengaluru.” Kolar, Tumakuru and Hunsur are viable options as they have significant minority and backward class votes, the leader says.
The BJP will keenly follow Siddaramaiah’s decision. Breaking him is how the BJP wants to weaken his hold on the Ahinda - the Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits.
Siddaramaiah loyalists B Z Zameer Ahmed Khan (Chamarajpet) and Byrathi Suresh (Hebbal) have offered to vacate their seats for their leader. Both seats are seen as safe - Chamarajpet has minority votes whereas Hebbal has enough OBCs.
Changing political dynamics in the Old Mysuru region may give Siddaramaiah, a Mysuru-native, the way out.
Chamundeshwari MLA G T Devegowda, the giant killer who beat Siddaramaiah, is mellowing down. This keeps the Chamundeshwari option alive, Mysuru-based political analyst Muzaffar Assadi says. Gowda looks set to join the Congress, but he has already spelt out his premium: he wants Chamundeshwari for himself and Hunsur for his son.
The Hunsur MLA is Siddaramaiah loyalist H P Manjunath. So, going to Hunsur will be seen as ousting another loyalist. And, finding a viable alternative other than Varuna for Yathindra, who has just begun his political career, is also a challenge.
“The other option is to contest from Varuna by finding an alternative for Yathindra. A third option is Shivajinagar or Chamarajpet, where there are significant Muslim votes,” Assadi opines.
Ask former minister H C Mahadevappa, Siddaramaiah’s confidant, and he says: “Siddaramaiah can win from any constituency in the state.”
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