Karnataka should administer at least 2.82 lakh vaccine doses every day to cover 65% of its population against Covid-19 within six months.
The estimate is as per a model developed by a three-member team comprising a clinical data scientist from Rector Healthcare, Pune, and a biostatistician and an oncologist from HCG Centre for Research and Academics, Bengaluru.
The team estimates that 35% of the population is aged below 18 years of age and, has not factored this group into the model.
On July 3, till 8.47 pm, the state-administered 4.72 lakh jabs. But on July 2, 2.34 lakh doses were given till 9.53 pm, and on July 1, 1.88 lakh doses were given till 8 pm.
Dr Ujjwal Rao, medical director and clinical data scientist, Rector Healthcare, Pune, who worked on the model, told DH, "The data shows that the focus has been on the 45 plus age group, primarily on the first dose. On June 30, for example, only 45,722 second doses were given and 1,40,836 first doses were given."
Though the gap set for Covishield doses is three months, for Covaxin, it is a mere one month. This does not help either as majority of doses with the state are that of Covishield.
"At this rate, it will be well into January 2022 before the state vaccinates its adult population, provided they give at least 2.82 lakh doses daily. If the state has to vaccinate every adult by December 31, the per-day target is even higher. Even with conservative estimates, Karnataka needs to double up its daily doses so that some portion of the population develops immunity in view of any newer variants we're likely to see in the third wave," he said.