Raj and Uddhav Thackeray, Voters in Mumbai after casting their votes
Credit: PTI Photos
Mumbai: Will the ruling state government be able to pull off a clean sweep in India’s financial capital Mumbai? The Thackerays may lose control of the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which it has controlled for over quarter of a century, if one goes by the exit poll results on Thursday.
This is the key question surrounding the elections to all the 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra, where polling was held after a gap of several years, with the terms of most of them having ended between 2020 and 2023.
The term of the last elected body of the BMC, which comprises 227 electoral wards, ended on March 7, 2022, however, during 2022-23 the western state saw a major churning in politics with changing equations, permutations and combinations.
The Mumbai mayor’s post of the BMC — which has a budget of Rs 70,000 crore and reserves of Rs 80,000 crore — is one dream that had eluded the BJP, however, this time, if one is to believe the exit polls and analysis, the saffron party might just get their way.
Mumbai is a bellwether and political performance in the Maximum city often signals broader urban trends ahead of state and national polls.
This would come as a major blow to the Thackeray cousins — Uddhav, the Shiv Sena (UBT) chief and Raj, the MNS founder-president — as the undivided Shiv Sena had commanded the BMC for a stretch of 25 years.
Winning Mumbai has been a major challenge for Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, however, early exit poll indication, predict that the BJP and its Maha Yuti allies - Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ramdas Athawale-led RPI (A), will get somewhere between 130 to150 seats.
On the other hand, the Thackerays and Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) will land somewhere between 50 to 60 seats, while the Congress and its allies Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and Mahadev Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Paksha will get 15 to 20 seats.
The Axis My India has predicted BJP and allies in the range of 131-151 followed by the Thackerays 58-68, Congress and allies 12-16 and Others 6-12.
The Praja Poll Analytics predict that BJP and allies will win 146 seats (+/-)15, while the Thackeray-Pawar combine will get 53 seats (+/-) 8 and the Congress and allies will get 15 (+/-) 3.
The Janmat Polls predict 138 seats for BJP and allies, 62 for the Thackerays and 20 for Congress and allies.
The Jubilant Data Studio predicts 127-155 for BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI (A), while it gives 44-64 for Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS-NCP (SP) and 16-25 for the Congress-led alliance.
Mumbai at a glance
If one looks at Mumbai, the Thackeray-led undivided Shiv Sena has constantly been No. 1 in the BMC - 1997 (103 seats), 2002 (97 seats), 2007 (84 seats), 2012 (75 seats) and 2017 (84 seats).
After the 2017 BMC polls, the Shiv Sena led the tally with 84, followed by BJP (82), Congress (31), NCP (9), MNS (7) and others (14).
*** In the 2012 polls, Shiv Sena won 75 seats followed by BJP (31), Congress (52), NCP (7), MNS (27), SP (9) and others (32).