File photo: BSF personnel and others stand at a farmland amid tensions after Kuki and Meitei villagers targeted each other with stones.
Credit: PTI
For many in the Bharatiya Janata Party in conflict-torn Manipur, the meeting between four of the party’s seven MLAs from the Kuki communities and their Meitei counterparts on December 14 was a rare “political icebreaker”. It was their first such interaction since the conflict involving the two communities erupted more than two-and-a-half years ago.
At the time, many within the party believed that the BJP high command might finally give the green signal to their repeated pleas for the restoration of a “popular government”, especially given what was described as a “positive response” from the Kuki legislators.
More than a month later, however, Manipur’s political atmosphere remains wrapped in speculation and uncertainty. The BJP is still unable to reach a consensus on restoring an elected government, even as President’s Rule in the state completes one year on February 13. “When will the popular government be formed?” “Who will become the next CM?” Such questions continue to hang unanswered, despite repeated rounds of meetings between BJP leaders, both in the state and in New Delhi.
Tough stand of the Kukis
Days after the four Kuki MLAs met their Meitei counterparts to discuss government formation, Kuki organisations – including armed groups under the suspension of operations agreement – issued a warning. “No individual from the Kuki-Zo communities, including legislators, would be part of a Meitei-led government,” the groups said.
On January 13, the Kuki groups held a meeting with a few Kuki MLAs in Guwahati, where it was decided that the community would support a government only if a “written commitment” was given for fulfilling their demand for the creation of a Union Territory with a legislature comprising Kuki-inhabited areas. The groups set 2027—the year of the next Assembly elections—as the deadline for meeting this demand. For the Kuki groups, a Union Territory remains the “only way forward” to end the conflict that has roiled the state since May 2023.
This position has prolonged the political stalemate, as the Centre has repeatedly made it clear that the present government policy does not support the creation of a new Union Territory.
Numerically, the BJP could still form a government. With 30 Meitei and Naga MLAs in the 60-member House, the party can form their government with the support of five Naga People’s Front MLAs and the Independents. The BJP high command, however, is keen on securing Kuki support to project an “inclusive” government.
CM face undecided
The BJP’s inability to decide on a chief ministerial candidate has remained another major hurdle to restoring the government. On January 17, former Chief Minister N Biren Singh met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi, where he was reportedly informed about objections raised by several BJP legislators to his leadership.
President’s Rule was promulgated after Biren Singh resigned and the party’s MLAs failed to arrive at a consensus candidate to replace him. At the time, at least four leaders were in contention for the top post.
According to BJP sources, Yumnam Khemchand Singh—the former Speaker and a minister in the Biren Cabinet—has now emerged as a strong contender. Khemchand is said to enjoy the backing of the RSS, while at least four Kuki MLAs reportedly want Biren Singh to return as the CM. Sources also said that Khemchand has met BJP leaders in New Delhi and Guwahati more than once since the December 14 meeting.
President’s Rule
President’s Rule was promulgated in Manipur on February 13 last year, with the Assembly placed under suspension. The imposition was extended by both Houses of the parliament in August. This extension will lapse on February 13, and the same may have to be extended for another six months if BJP fails to restore the government. President’s Rule can be extended up to three years. BJP leaders in the state, however, are worried about possible adverse impact on the party’s prospects in the next elections in 2027. “Our support base is shrinking fast given the inability to end the conflict and restore the government,” a BJP leader in Imphal
told DH.