File photo for Representational Photo.
Credit: PTI photo
Mumbai: Climate change has been making the southwest monsoon wetter, with five out of the last 10 seasons settling with above-normal rainfall — and in 2025 nearly 45% of the country’s landmass experienced extreme rainfall, according to a new analysis by Climate Trends.
The southwest monsoon 2025 recently concluded with ‘above-normal’ rainfall to the tune of 108% of the long-period average (LPA). This is the second consecutive year in the last decade to record above normal rains.
Climate change has a critical role in driving the rainfall on the higher side, according to experts.
In the last 10 years from 2016-2025, five years have registered above normal rainfall, two years recorded normal rainfall and three years witnessed below normal.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) classifies ‘normal’ rains when the actual monsoon is between 96-104 per cent of the long period average (LPA), while rains over 104 per cent of the LPA are classified as ‘above-normal’.
Of India’s 727 districts, 328 recorded normal rainfall this season, 186 saw excess, and 67 reported large excess, while 134 faced a deficit and another 67 experienced severe shortfall.
According to meteorologists, the rainfall data over the years clearly shows that most of the rainfall is realised in the form of heavy rainfall. The data depicted below shows that most of the rainfall in the last 12 years has shown an upward trend.
“Monsoon seasons are not the same anymore. The last 10 years have recorded normal to above normal rainfall, with the latter being more prominent. Monsoon amplification and intensification are directly linked to global warming. Global warming has become the biggest driver of the monsoon now.
The influence of El Niño and La Niña has been decreasing in the global warming era. The number of rainy days has decreased, but the quantum of rainfall has increased.
Daily quantum of rainfall has undergone a significant change,” said KJ Ramesh, former Director General, India Meteorological Department.
“Behavioural patterns of monsoon systems have changed drastically, altering rainfall patterns as well. We now see low pressure areas spending more numbers of days than its average period over the
land that too maintaining the strength. This is mainly because of the increased and continuous moisture feed over the land as well. Not just extreme rainfall events have increased but there has also been a rise in cloudburst like conditions as well. This was not the case earlier,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
“The present dispensation of disasters across the places situated along the southern rim of the western Himalayas is of serious significance. It is the cumulative addition of precipitation from monsoon, local orographic sources/interactions and glaciers.
The series of floods and fury witnessed during the monsoon 2025 is not very common over the region during the monsoon season. It is a combined effect of various
effects and impacts of climate change,” added Prof A P Dimri, Director, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism.
The monsoon 2025 caused severe flooding and landslides in India, particularly in the northern states, leading to thousands of deaths, widespread displacement, and extensive infrastructure damage.
Several river basins that had remained dormant for years experienced a renewed surge in water levels.
During the four-month-long southwest monsoon season (June-September 2025), a total of 55 sites recorded incidents of Highest Flood Level (HFL) breaches.
However, the total number of breach events stands at 59, as four of these sites experienced two separate breaches within the same period.
Additionally, the Brahmaputra basin, where HFL was reached on May 31, 2025, has been included in the final tally. This was also the third highest breaching events since 2020 when rivers reached highest flood levels.