The lack of required numbers in the Rajya Sabha has been the BJP’s biggest handicap in getting some of its pet bills passed. That might change soon, before 2021 itself.
At present, the NDA has 105 members (BJP 75) in the 245-member House. It requires 18 more to get a simple majority in the Upper House. Had it not lost the assembly polls in three Hindi heartland states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — the alliance could have got the majority on its own by 2020 itself.
Elections will be held for 10 RS seats this year. But the biggest tranches of seats, 72, will fall vacant in 2020 between April and November. While the BJP can get 10 more seats by next year, taking its number to 85, the Congress may lose a dozen seats by next year.
Ten Rajya Sabha seats of UP will also fall vacant in 2020, of which the BJP can win nine, going by its current strength in the UP Assembly. Nine of these seats are currently with the Opposition— SP (6), BSP (2) and Congress (1).
If elections are held separately for the two Rajya Sabha seats — vacated by Amit Shah and Smriti Irani, who won from Gandhinagar and Amethi respectively — the BJP will win both the seats.
Gains will also accrue to the BJP from vacancies in Rajya Sabha from Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh from where it will compensate the losses from Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh
When the BJP aligned with the AIADMK, there were many who raised questions on the winnability of the alliance in Tamil Nadu. But gains for the BJP were not only for Lok Sabha but also Rajya Sabha, where it got the backing of 13 MPs of the southern party.
Among other NDA allies, JD-U has six, Shiv Sena and Akali Dal three each and AGP, RPI (A), Sikkim Democratic Front, and National Peoples’ Front one each.
The BJP, which won a record 303 seats, is hopeful of putting up a good show in assembly polls in three BJP ruled states — Haryana, Maharasthra and Jharkhand and AAP-ruled Delhi — where it won all five seats.
Soon after achieving the majority mark, the BJP will bring in a number of its core bills which it could not introduce earlier due to lack of numbers in the Rajya Sabha.
The party is also hopeful of getting support from friendly parties like the TRS, the BJD and the YRSCP.
On Thursday, the BJP inducted four of six Rajya Sabha MPs of the TDP into its fold, evoking strong reactions not only from the TDP but also other Opposition parties, whose apprehensions have now risen.