Credit: PTI Photo
Almost a year after the Covid-19 pandemic, the Indian aviation sector began to deliver one good news after another. Airlines not only reached pre-Covid levels of passengers, but even surpassed those numbers.
On the heels of this also came major orders for aircraft. The sector created waves globally when it ordered 1,300 aircraft. IndiGo ordered 500 Airbus A320 aircraft in June 2023. This was soon followed by Air India, which ordered 470 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus, which included 70 wide-body aircraft which could fly to Europe, Australia, Africa, US and Canada. Akasa Air also ordered aircraft, and both IndiGo and Air India added more aircraft to their earlier orders.
In another bit of good news, India is expected to add 20 new airports in the coming years. However, is all this news that good? After all, having aircraft armed with the latest technology and more airports is only one side of the story. An equally, if not more, crucial side is the workforce needed to operate these aircraft. And this is where the story changes.
Simplistically speaking, the manpower needed for running the civil aviation sector includes the cockpit crew, air traffic controllers (ATCs), engineers, cabin crew and ground staff. Let's consider these areas one by one.
First, the ATCs. The ATC Guild claims that there is a shortage of about 1,500 air traffic controllers in India at the moment. There are about 4,060 trained ATC members in India, while the sanctioned strength was 5,537 as of 2024. The Guild claims that hiring new ATCs is a slow process, worsened by the fact that it takes between two to three years of training for an ATC to be able to take a seat in the tower. Major metro-wise breakup requirements for ATCs are not available with the Guild.
The situation is no better when it comes to the other personnel. Earlier this month, in its Commercial Market Outlook for South Asia, Boeing forecast that the demand for pilots, cabin crew and technicians will quadruple to 1.29 lakh by 2043 alongside commercial airplane fleet expansion. This represents the fastest growth rate in any region globally. While the outlook is for South Asia, a majority of the demand will come from India.
The Handbook of Civil Aviation Statistics 2023-24 (the latest available in the public domain on the Directorate General of Civil Aviation website) shows that the human resources of scheduled airlines stood at close to 73,000. This included 9,390 pilots and co-pilots, 19,677 cabin crew and 4,532 maintenance and overhaul personnel as of 2022-23.
The fleet of scheduled Indian operators at the end of March 2023 stood at 653 aircraft. The number of aircraft in service and personnel available would have increased since then, but the key question is whether the number of personnel will be enough to meet the number of aircraft that have been ordered by Indian airlines.
Flight crew requirements
The situation with the pilots is equally concerning. According to TeamLease Degree Apprenticeship, a talent recruitment agency, the shortfall in commercial pilots is expected to be between 2,500 and 3,000 in the near future, a situation exacerbated by a 5 to 10% deficit in trained ground staff and cabin crew. While the airlines in India are relatively young, save for Air India, it is estimated that several experienced pilots flying with the industry are set to retire in the next five to seven years.
Further, on average, a narrowbody aircraft like a Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 with an Indian airline requires about seven crew sets. For a long-haul flight connecting India and Europe, the average is eight sets, going up to 13 sets for ultra-long-haul (ULH) flights flying non-stop between India and the United States. A crew set consists of one pilot and one commander who is experienced enough to train a junior pilot. In fact, in January last year, pilot bodies had raised the issue of India not having enough pilots to fly ULH routes. When it comes to cabin crew, requirements mandate that there be one crew member per door in a narrowbody aircraft, so between 4 to 6 cabin crew are required for every narrowbody an airline has.
Industry insiders also say that as things stand today, there is a shortage of engineers. There is a fear that if more engineers are not available, then the quality of engineers might fall, as available personnel will be forced to do additional work. There are two categories of aircraft engineers — B1, who look after airframes and engines, and B2, who look after avionics on the aircraft. Then there are CAT-A personnel, who are licenced to do 14 jobs, including wheel change.
The number of B1 and B2 engineers that an airline requires is a factor of the number of aircraft and flights that are operated. So, say in a city like Agra, which does not cater to too many flights, airlines will need to keep a few B1 engineers. But in metro airports, which have multiple departures and arrivals in a day, an airline needs to have sufficient numbers of both B1 and B2 engineers to look after the fleet.
With not many career growth prospects for the staff working at airports and in the retail outlets at airports, combined with the erratic working hours, the attrition rate is very high. A recent survey by TeamLease Degree Apprenticeship shows an attrition rate of 47 to 48% in this personnel group in the domestic aviation sector.
Sustaining growth
So, what is the solution for sustaining the aviation sector growth story? Experts cite skill gaps as a major reason for these projections, so the solutions also need to focus on skilling young talent. Equally important is the need to make those embarking on their careers aware of the options that the aviation sector provides.
Dhriti Prasanna Mahanta, vice-president and business head, TeamLease Degree Apprenticeship, says that there could be some short-term pain points, in the next five years or so, in the Indian aviation growth story. However, in the long run, things will improve and the pain points will ease themselves out. Mahanta believes that government support is essential in the Indian aviation ecosystem, with moves like capping fees for pilot training being important.
Some airlines have started finding solutions on their own. Industry estimates show a major airline has a pipeline which has over 2,200 personnel undergoing training each day. Similarly, another major airline is also ramping up training of personnel in all categories, and has created multiple centres around the country to scale up its trained manpower requirements for the future. It is also signing multiple agreements with global agencies to meet the requirements for the maintenance of its aircraft.
To augment the supply of trained pilots, the Airports Authority of India has come out with a liberalised Flying Training Organisation (FTO). Now, the FTO does not have to pay a revenue share to AAI and land rentals have been significantly rationalised.
On the operational front, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation has taken a number of steps including the introduction of an online on-demand examination for aircraft maintenance engineers and flying crew candidates. This facility allows candidates to choose the date and time from the available exam slots.
Will this be enough though? Experts say that to sustain growth and global competitiveness, aviation industry leaders must strengthen collaborations between academia and airlines, integrate advanced aviation curricula, and expand job training opportunities. A big ask, no doubt, but something that the sector needs in order to stay or progress from being the third-fastest-growing aviation market in the world.
(Ashwini Phadnis is a senior aviation journalist based in Delhi.)