Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma meets people.
Credit: PTI Photo
Gauging political mood is tough because it’s inter-subjective; much depends on who’s doing the asking, how it is asked, and who the responding. But two things seem clear in Assam right now. In public perception, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holds the upper hand, with elections to be held over three days: April 19, 26, and May 7; and, the notification of the rules under the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) 2019 on March 11, which can change electoral dynamics.
Numbers provide some basis for gauging intangibles. In 2016, the Congress government led by Tarun Gogoi was voted out of power after three terms. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) registered a thumping victory, gaining around 30 per cent of votes and 59 seats to end up with 86 in an Assembly of 126. In 2021, it increased its vote share by around 3 per cent, but lost 11 seats, still maintaining a huge majority.
Earlier, in the 2014 general elections, it first made a significant gain, upping its vote share over 2009 by ~20 per cent, but gaining only three seats to end up with seven out of 14. In 2019, its vote share fell marginally, but remained over 36 per cent. It gained two more seats to end up with nine.
In Assam, thus, we have a curious phenomenon — the BJP is dominant in the Assembly elections, though the Congress has raised its game to remain competitive as far as vote share goes, but the general elections are more evenly poised. A personality issue is at play: Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s popularity and organisational acumen counts in the last mile more than Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ratings. Sarma quit the Congress to join the BJP in 2015, and engineered its 2016 sweep; he remains the main man in the state.
That is why it’s surprising when some pundits say that it’s going to be the saffron sweep that’s never happened in a general election. Even in Kaziranga. The Kaliabor parliamentary constituency, of which Kaziranga was a part in 2019, was won by the Congress’ Gaurav Gogoi, with a huge majority of 785,014 votes. After the 2023 delimitation, Kaliabor has been replaced by the Kaziranga constituency, in which the BJP controls more Assembly segments. Classic gerrymandering?
Nevertheless, the Congress has significant support in two relevant districts — Nagaon and Golaghat. Delimitation isn’t going to change that. But you still have people talking about the inevitability of the saffron behemoth steamrolling the Opposition.
The BJP’s uber-efficient propaganda machine is doing its job. Comprehensive wins in two consecutive Assembly elections give this perception the ballast it needs to dominate the public space. Not everyone is buying this linear narrative. A not inconsiderable number of people say that the Congress is reclaiming lost ground, and will do well.
What this kind of statement means is not very clear, however. In 2019, the Congress polled 0.61 per cent less than the BJP, though it got three seats (out of 11 contested) to the BJP’s nine. That would appear to make a small shift significant, unless there’s been a significant diminution in the Congress’ support. Despite the popular perception, this is not widely suggested.
Then, of course, the spectre of CAA looms. Opinion is divided. Some think it will hurt the BJP’s chances; others say Sarma’s assurance that only 300,000 to 600,000 will apply for citizenship under CAA will allay concerns. That can’t be treated as given. It’s true, however, that the BJP has, as insurance, secured the support of a section of Bodos, giving the United People’s Party Liberal a seat in a three-party alliance. This is important.
On the other hand, the Congress has an alliance with 15 smaller parties and seems inclined to let go of two seats. Not many people are, however, guessing how this will work out electorally. There’s a feeling that what could work for the Opposition is the support of anti-CAA political and social networks like those centred on Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal and the All Assam Students’ Union.
Numbers and political logic, notwithstanding, the BJP is winning the perception battle. Whether perceptions translate into votes is imponderable, though.
(Suhit K Sen is author of ‘The Paradox of Populism: The Indira Gandhi Years, 1966-1977’.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.