DH Deciphers | The census-delimitation link: Why southern states are worried
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The countdown has started for India’s next population census, with the union government finally announcing a two-phase schedule spread over the next two years. The first phase of the exercise will cover the hilly parts of the country such as Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand by October 1, 2026 and the second, to be completed by March 1, 2027, will cover the rest of the country. Originally scheduled for 2021, the census was initially postponed due to the Covid pandemic but was further delayed due to unspecified reasons. Coming after a 16-year break, the census is critical to the country in many respects. That it will cover detailed caste data, for the first time since Independence – the last caste census was conducted in 1931 – is important. It will also be the first digitally compiled census, facilitating speedier data collection and ensuring enhanced accessibility and retrieval.
The census data is vital for the country which has been undergoing rapid changes demographically, economically and socially. India’s population which totalled about 121 crore in 2011 may have increased by about 18-20% now, making it the world’s most populous country. Its GDP, which was worth about $1.8 trillion, is projected to cross $5 trillion in 2027. A decreased birth rate is likely but the rate may have come down at different paces across regions and states. Large-scale urbanisation has altered the composition of the population, making total and disaggregated demographic data essential for policy formulation and targeted schemes for specific sections. Fresh data is also important for the private sector to streamline planning. Efficient and transparent compilation must be ensured to generate authentic data.
Among the important takeaways from this enumeration will be the caste data it collects. It comes after persistent demands from major Opposition parties for a census on these lines and the government’s repeated rejections of the demands. There are wider political interests in play here; the findings of the caste census will also set the tone for intensified political manoeuvres aimed at leveraging the new numbers. The proposed delimitation of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies also hinges on the census findings. States that have seen a lower rate of population growth have expressed concern over the possibility of diminished parliamentary representation following a delimitation based on population. This concern needs to be addressed. The census is also integral to efforts made towards women’s representation, considering that the Women’s Representation Bill is likely to be implemented after the exercise.