Representative image of heavy rains.
Credit: PTI File photo
The south-west monsoon has withdrawn, leaving some parts of the country short of rainfall, some other areas in abundance of it, and the country as a whole in deficit. During its course from June to September, it was below normal, with a cumulative rainfall of 82 cm, which is 94.4% of the long-period average. The IMD had anticipated a 4% shortfall in the worst scenario, taking into consideration the impact of the El Nino phenomenon, which usually affects the monsoon adversely. Apart from El Nino, climate change was also a disruptive factor. According to the IPCC, every 1 degree Centigrade of global warming would intensify extreme daily precipitation events by 7%. We have just started experiencing the waywardness of the monsoon caused by climate change.
The monsoon is becoming more and more uneven and irregular than in the past. Its temporal and spatial distributions are increasingly veering away from the normal. There was ‘excess’ rainfall in about 8% of the country and deficient rainfall in 18% of it, while the rest of the country received ‘normal’ rainfall. Even the normal was an average, with the rainfall varying greatly over the season. August was the driest in about 100 years, but North India had record rainfall. States like Himachal Pradesh and Punjab saw flooding and other problems. But there were drought-like conditions in Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and Karnataka. The overall graph was marked by ups and downs -- 9% deficit in June, 13% excess in July, 36% deficit in August, and 13% excess in September. The IMD has forecast a normal north-east monsoon, which is limited to the southern region, from October to December.
The country’s life in all areas is attuned to a normal monsoon and so changes and disruptions in its course will create problems which call for new solutions and adjustments. Agriculture will have to cope with new uncertainties. This may require expansion of irrigation, greater economy in the use of water, and more storage facilities, adoption of less water-intensive crops, changes in farming schedules and practices. Food habits and consumption styles will have to change. The economy will be impacted because the monsoon influences it in many ways. The government resorted to imposing restrictions on the export of rice, wheat and sugar and took other regulatory measures this year because of the irregular nature of the monsoon. The IMD has to improve its forecasting abilities in the short term and at the micro level. The situation is clouded, with climate change playing with our familiar patterns of weather, and that makes better coping and adaptation strategies all the more important.