The Indian government’s report to the UN framework convention on climate change has revealed an uncomfortable, even a scary, scenario of the impact of global warming on the country. The report was prepared on the basis of studies over a long period conducted by experts of about 120 institutions which are engaged in research into various aspects of climate change. The main threats perceived by the experts and mentioned in the report are the rise in sea levels in the next few decades which may inundate many areas on the western coast from Gujarat through Konkan to southern Kerala and damage to the river mouths on the eastern coast. The impact on habitation, livelihood, water availability and agriculture will be considerable. Some parts of the coastal areas may altogether disappear.
While a rise in global temperatures may help some countries in the colder northern hemisphere to increase food productivity, it will have disastrous results on agriculture in tropical countries like India. The summer monsoon, which provides 75 per cent of India’s rainfall and on which agriculture is crucially dependent, will become unpredictable. It will lead to floods in some areas and drought in other places. A World Bank study had also found that the drought-prone areas in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra and the flood-prone districts in Orissa are even now near climate tolerance limits. The availability of water, not just for agriculture but even for drinking, will be seriously affected. The present practices of total mismanagement of water resources – overdrawal, misuse and neglect of conservation – will aggravate the emerging situation. Salination of water in coastal areas will pose another threat.
The report calls for long-term plans to mitigate climate change and face the threat. Many of the emerging problems are not in the long term. The report foresees a 4 degree Celsius rise in maximum temperatures in some areas of Kutch and Rajasthan in the next 10 years. That underlines the need to evolve comprehensive climate change resistance strategies and to start implementing them early. Attention must concentrate on saving agriculture through better water management, changes in farming practices and development of varieties that suit the new conditions. Building of improved water management and irrigation infrastructure, and setting up of desalination facilities are also important. People may even have to be relocated away from vulnerable coastal areas. The global climate change talks are stuck, but the country has to be ready to deal with the situation irrespective of the outcome.