The possibility of a military confrontation between NATO powers and Russia is growing by the day. Russia is said to have deployed around 1,00,000 troops, artillery and missiles near its border with Ukraine. In anticipation of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO powers are augmenting their military forces too. While Moscow has denied plans to invade Ukraine, the possibility of some kind of military incursion cannot be ruled out. It has seized Ukrainian territory before - in 2014, for instance, when Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian leader, Moscow annexed Ukraine’s southern Crimean peninsula. Russia is worried that Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, will join NATO. Russia has demanded a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and an end to NATO’s deployment of troops and weaponry in Eastern Europe. In effect, Russia is calling for a rollback of NATO forces to their positions before NATO’s eastward expansion began in 1997. NATO countries are unlikely to accept these sweeping demands. To do so would encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to press ahead with his expansionist ambitions. He wants the west to recognise a Russian sphere of influence.
The situation is fragile and volatile, far more serious than it has ever been even at the height of the Cold War. Indeed, Russian officials have warned that the situation today is similar to that during the Cuban missile crisis when the Soviet Union and the US teetered on the brink of a nuclear conflict. The problem is that the decision to go to war now will not be based on genuine security concerns but on plummeting popularity of leaders back home. Both US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson are facing multiple domestic woes. A military confrontation with Russia is just the kind of ‘action’ that will boost their ratings at home.
The US faces difficult decisions. To not act and only threaten will leave it looking weak and irresolute not just to its enemies but its allies as well. Sanctions are an over-used weapon that hasn’t yielded desired outcomes in the past. A limited military confrontation with Russia may not go in the US’ favour as the military situation on the ground now favours Russia. As for Russia, it may be able to invade Ukraine without difficulty. The problem lies in holding this territory, as it well knows from its decade-long occupation of Afghanistan. As in Afghanistan, in Ukraine, it will face a western-backed resistance as NATO countries are sure to supply anti-Russia rebels with arms. The talks option may seem futile at this point but it is the only way to stave off a military confrontation.