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Data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) report for 2023 show that India has crossed an important demographic threshold. The country’s birth and death rates have fallen to nearly half the levels about 50 years ago. The total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.9, which is much lower than the replacement level of 2.1 – the rate at which the population remains stable. This drop indicates a population decline. Rural fertility now stands at 2.1, and urban fertility has fallen to 1.6. The crude birth rate has fallen from 36.9 per 1,000 in 1971 to 17.2 in 2023, while the crude death rate has dropped from 14.9 to 6.4. Infant mortality has declined from 129 per 1,000 live births in the 1970s to 22 today, and the maternal mortality ratio has fallen to 97 per 1,00,000 from about 800.
Better standards in education, economy, health, and social conditions have translated into improved population statistics. Rising life expectancy and falling fertility would, together, create greater demand for elder care facilities that remain inadequate in India. The country should brace for the economic and social challenges an ageing population presents. It is important that the changes are interpreted rightly and acted upon with informed strategies. An equally important challenge is to make use of the demographic advantage while it lasts. India has a small window for action now. The working-age segment is about 65% of the population, and a large section of this segment is not productive. About 42% of the youth are not in formal employment and are not adequately educated. The female labour force participation rate is a mere 37%. India has to educate and provide skills to its youth and ensure at least basic health standards for them. It is also imperative that they are provided adequate economic opportunities and are encouraged to be part of the country’s development process.
There are variations in fertility and mortality rates between different regions and states in the country. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh lag behind other states – they rank low in socio-economic indicators as well. This has reaffirmed familiar anxieties among other states. Their concerns should be addressed in such a way that they do not end up with the perception that they are being penalised for performing better. A falling birth rate is an advantage if the right policies and strategies are formulated to deal with it. It should be ensured that India does not grow old before it attains at least medium levels of development.