Seshadri Chari reads between the lines on big national and international developments from his vantage point in the BJP and the RSS
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Donald Trump’s tariff war on the world in general and China in particular is shaking up global markets. The present market volatility, recalibration of economic and trade policies by countries, and the disruption of value and supply chain mechanisms is indicative of Trump-induced uncertainties for some more months, if not years. While the Make America Great Again (MAGA) promise was expected, destabilising the global economic order and antagonising the allies is no way to meet the challenges of rising China.
Trump’s discomfort with the rise of China, his accusations of Beijing using unethical business and trade policies and the apprehensions of his security and strategic advisors of China’s bid to dislodge the US from its superpower status were all part of the narrative-building during the run-up to his presidential election in 2024. It would not have been far from accurate to conclude that Trump would initiate strong anti-China measures and reignite the trade war that he had begun during his first term. Trump, like any other US president, had to balance global military and financial commitments with domestic economic stability, and still keep America great.
Withdrawing from the global economic platforms and distancing itself from the conflicts is an easier way out of executing the US’ responsibilities that it has so assiduously performed all these years in pursuance of the principles of messianic democracy. America’s withdrawal from its global role, promoting China as the ‘Pivot of Asia’, opening up the American consumer markets to Chinese manufacturers at the cost of American industries and taking China’s economic and technological prowess lightly, resulted in the rise of China in the world order. While the US was busy with global engagements, China was silently working on networking, spreading its influence in hitherto uncharted areas and building strategic assets all over the world.
Besides, unlike America which spent trillions of dollars in military spending in flashpoints like the Middle East, Afghanistan, and earlier in Vietnam, China advanced projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a ‘for China, of China, by China’ project aimed at creating infrastructure all over the world to facilitate and promote China’s trade, security and strategic interests. China has been working on the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) since 2015, as an alternative to SWIFT which was rolled out recently linking 87 per cent of the countries in the world.
Notwithstanding these global networking and economic strides, there are major challenges for China to come any closer to achieving its objective of presiding over the emerging new world order by replacing America’s leadership which has been aided by its global economic influence.
It is this overwhelming global influence that Trump has now flagged and is acting upon through exorbitantly high tariffs and stern and restrictive trade policies. Had these punitive policies been restricted to China, the world would not have probably reacted with alarm. Rather, emerging economies that are under the influence of China’s debt trap would have welcomed them. It is difficult to assess the immediate and long-term consequences of Trump’s tariffs which in any case might affect the American consumers, undermine American interests, and hold over the current world order.
It is nobody’s argument that the US-led world order is flawless and perfect. But the present world order has withstood several global conflicts and economic turbulence mainly due to the recognition of the interdependence of countries and economies, not to mention seamless socio-cultural exchanges.
Students and business enthusiasts flock to America, the land of opportunities, looking for better standards of living, rule of law and many other factors that their society and economy offer. Will all of them or at least a substantial number of them flock to any Chinese province, for the same reasons? An autocratic hegemony may displace an existing liberal hegemony as the head of the world order, but it is difficult to imagine China and its currency substituting US and its dollar. For this to happen, China will have to become democratic, respect the international judicial system and become aligned to the rule-following countries, and not position itself as a rule-making entity.
Both the US and China should recognise the hard geopolitical reality of an emerging world order in a multipolar system that demands collective decision-making processes. Forums like the G20, South South Cooperation (SSC) and other regional groupings will not tolerate a hegemonic world order that serves the limited purpose of either the US or China.
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.