Representative image of Israeli and Iranian flags.
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Jerusalem: Israel has long envisioned a military attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. Many in the Middle East, the United States and Europe are now wondering whether that moment has arrived.
On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that officials in the United States and Europe believe that Israel seems to be gearing up for a potential strike, even as the Trump administration is seeking a deal with Tehran to curb its nuclear program.
An Israeli attack would risk igniting a regional war that could pull in the United States, which withdrew some diplomats and personnel from the Middle East this week, fearing an Iranian retaliatory strike. President Donald Trump has warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel against attacking Iran, increasing tensions between the two leaders.
It is still unclear whether the heightened tensions reflect a genuine Israeli plan to carry out an attack or are an attempt at saber rattling to influence the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran.
Why might Israel attack now?
Israel has long been determined to prevent Iran, its fiercest enemy, from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Since the rise of the Islamic Republic at the end of the 1970s, Iran’s rulers have repeatedly pledged to destroy Israel.
Iran’s nuclear program has advanced considerably over the past decade, analysts say. It is now on the brink of being able to manufacture enough nuclear material to fuel 10 nuclear weapons, although producing a usable bomb would likely take many more months.
On Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency declared that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations — the first such censure in two decades. Iran condemned the vote, saying it “completely called into question the credibility and prestige” of the nuclear watchdog.
But Iran has been weakened since Hamas launched the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel that ignited the war in the Gaza Strip. Hamas and Hezbollah, which are backed by Iran, have been decimated in their wars with Israel.
Netanyahu has privately argued that Iran’s vulnerability will not last long, meaning that Israel has a limited window in which to launch an attack.
“One way or the other, Iran will not have nuclear weapons,” he said in an speech in April.
Iran had wielded the threat of a formidable response by Hezbollah in Lebanon as a deterrent against Israeli attack. But after Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, Israel routed the group, methodically eliminating its leadership and killing thousands of its fighters.
Israeli strikes against Iran’s air defenses last year weakened their capabilities, allowing Israeli fighter jets to more safely launch a new mass attack, according to officials and analysts. If Israel waits too long, Iran might restore them, analysts said.
What’s the status of US-Iran nuclear talks?
American and Iranian negotiators have been planning to meet Sunday in Oman for a sixth round of talks about Iran’s nuclear program. The two sides have been at an impasse over whether Iran should be able to continue enriching uranium within its borders.
During his first term, Trump pulled the United States out of a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that was signed by Barack Obama, deriding the agreement as “one-sided.” This time around, he seems eager to avoid being sucked into a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
Earlier this week, Trump said that Iran had adopted an “unacceptable” negotiating position, and has downplayed the prospects of a deal. “I’m getting more and more less confident about it,” he told The New York Post in a podcast Wednesday. “They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame.”
Still, Trump has warned Netanyahu multiple times against attacking Iran’s nuclear sites while talks are underway. “I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” Trump said in May.
Why are Israel and Iran at odds?
Iran and Israel have been enemies for decades.
Iran has supported a web of militia groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, to pressure Israel on multiple fronts. Israel has bombarded sites in Syria and assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists.
In the last year, their shadow war has become overt. In April 2024, Israel assassinated Iranian security chiefs in an airstrike in Syria, prompting Iran to fire hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. Israel later struck back at Iran.
Several months later, Iran fired more than 150 missiles at Israel in response to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ leader, in Tehran. Israel retaliated by again bombarding Iran’s aerial defenses.
Israel’s attacks have effectively taken out four S-300 air-defense systems that Iran had purchased from Russia, Iranian and Israeli officials said, including one near Natanz, a city in central Iran that is critical to the country’s nuclear program.
Could Israel go it alone?
Israel possesses sophisticated military capabilities. But military analysts say destroying Iran’s nuclear program would be tricky, even for one of the strongest powers in the Middle East, and would probably require U.S. military support.
Previous Israeli plans to attack Iran have relied heavily on U.S. backing. Israel also hopes U.S. forces will defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, which is expected to be prompt and forceful.
Israel’s planes would have to fly long distances to strike Iran. In similar attacks, such as those against the Houthis in Yemen, Israeli forces have flown more than 1,000 miles, using dozens of fighter jets that had to be refueled midflight. Israel has conducted such operations before, but a mass attack would test the scope of their resources.
Experts say destroying all of Iran’s nuclear sites — some of which are in heavily reinforced underground facilities beneath mountains — would require extremely powerful munitions. The United States has thus far refused Israeli requests to provide the biggest bomb in its arsenal, a 30,000-pound “bunker-buster.”
And if an Israeli strike fails to eradicate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it could drive the weapons program deeper underground, leading Iran to bar the few nuclear inspectors who still have regular, if limited, access to its major facilities.
An Israeli strike could also prompt Iran’s leaders to finally decide to race for a bomb — the line that its mullahs and generals have, for nearly a quarter of a century, stopped short of crossing.