US President Donald Trump, who has been criticised for his handling of the pandemic and ensuing onslaught on the economy, is hoping for a second term. Joe Biden, who failed twice to secure the democratic nomination in 1988 and 2008, is hoping that he’ll be chosen for a first term.
“If you really want to drive them crazy, you say 12 more years,” Trump said whilst campaigning. His approach to re-election has been very different from his predecessor Barack Obama’s, who said, “I’d rather be a really good one-term President than a mediocre two-term President.”
Based on historical data of one-term Presidents and their failure to secure a second term, what are Trump’s chances of getting re-elected? What makes a one-term President?
Two of the most famous re-election losses in recent times are that of Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican George H W Bush. Carter was President from 1977 to 1980 and Bush Senior from 1989 to 1993.
There are three major factors that decide a President’s re-election - approval ratings, the economy and party unity plus the strength of the opponent. Arguably, the country’s economic performance is the most important factor. So, how did Carter and Bush Senior do?
Approval ratings
Democrat Jimmy Carter started his term as President with a high approval rating of over 75% in March 1977. Over time, his approval rating dropped to 34% by December 1980. He saw a short-lived uptick in support in late 1979 through January 1980 when Americans rallied around him during the Iran hostage crisis. In the November election, those who disapproved of him were in the mid-50s.
In the election, he managed just 41% of the vote compared to Republican Ronald Reagan’s 50%. Reagan won 489 electoral college votes to Carter’s paltry 49.
Twelve years after Carter’s loss, Bush Senior ran for re-election. During his term, Bush Senior enjoyed historically high approval ratings peaking at 89% in February 1991. About 15 months later, Bush Senior’s approval rating dropped to 29% by July 1992.
The drop in approval ratings signalled what was to come in November 1992, when he could manage just 37.45% of the popular vote, whilst Bill Clinton scored 43%. As a result, Clinton won 370 electoral college votes compared to the 168 that Bush received.
The economy
When Carter began his Presidency, he had already inherited a high inflation rate due to years of federal spending on the Vietnam war. Things got worse, however, as oil prices rose after the Iran-Iraq war and the Iranian revolution. Inflation in the months before Carter sought a second term averaged 13.5% and unemployment peaked at 7.8% in July 1980.
Author and political commentator Rick Perlstein writes in his new book Reaganland: America’s Right Turn 1976-1980 that Carter’s response to the failing economy was to cut spending, budgets and austerity, which was opposed by the Democratic party and the American people.
Reagan, in a popular counter to Carter’s defence of his economic policies, said, “A recession is when your neighbour loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours, and recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”
Critics say that Bush Senior’s term was an extension of the prime years of Reaganomics, which may have possibly led to a recession in 1990 and 1992, with unemployment peaking at 7.8% by June 1992. The quarterly GDP growth rate fell to its lowest of -3.6% in the fourth quarter of 1990. Bush Senior’s poll numbers kept dropping due to the recession.
Bush Senior also managed to anger his own party and the voters with a promise of no new taxes despite a climbing budget deficit. Perlstein noted that when an incumbent presides over a bad economy, it drives a lot of voter decisions.
Unity of the party and the Opposition
Adding to Carter’s economic and diplomatic woes was the fact that he had to compete with Ted Kennedy in the primaries. Many in the Democratic party weren’t keen on Carter’s fiscally conservative and austere approach. Kennedy was seen as a viable alternative with several in the Democratic party supporting him. Though Carter beat Kennedy to win the Democratic nomination, the fight brought out many chinks in his armour.
Pat Buchanan ran against Bush Senior in the Republican primaries. Though Bush Senior secured the nomination, the race between the two showed everyone in the country how divided the party was. Moreover, independent politician and businessman Ross Perot played a huge role in the 1992 election by taking away potential voters from Bush Senior. In fact, at one point in the race, the third-party Texan was briefly in the lead. He won nearly 19% of the popular vote, which is just shy of 20 million ballots.
Clarion call for Trump
In two of the three factors, Trump is in a similar position to Carter and Bush Senior. Trump’s approval has never crossed the 50% mark. His highest approval rating so far has been 49% right before the pandemic and though his disapproval rating is rather consistent compared to Carter or Bush Senior, his disapproval rating of 55% is the exact same as Bush Senior’s and Carter’s in the month of July in their respective election years.
Secondly, for Trump, the Covid-19 pandemic has turned the economy on its head. What was a fairly stable economy before the pandemic turned into one of the world’s worst-hit economies in a matter of months, with the country seeing the unemployment rate at a whopping 14.7% in April 2020 and the GDP contracting 31.7% compared to the previous quarter.
Party unity is the only major factor that is in Trump’s favour with 88% of Republican-registered voters approving of him. He also did not face any major competition for the nomination from other Republicans.
Furthermore, Trump has only a 33% approval for his response to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. And 59% of Americans believe the US is reopening the economy prematurely. Meanwhile, 78% of Republicans believe that Trump responded in the right manner when it came to the economy. The latest poll data from WSJ and NBC shows that Biden has a 9-point lead on Trump.
Though the poll data and the previous performances of one-term Presidents show that a second term appears unlikely for Trump, it is too early to call the election in favour of Biden as there could still be some surprises on the horizon. Remember what happened when everyone thought the race was done and dusted in 2016? The impact of the global pandemic and racial strife across the nation have made this one of the most unique and unpredictable races in the history of the United States.