<p>With NATO member-states signing the Accession Protocols for Sweden and Finland on Tuesday, the process for the two Nordic countries to join the military alliance has crossed a crucial barrier. Sweden and Finland had stayed out of NATO even at the height of the Cold War. However, Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine prompted them to seek NATO membership. Their path to membership had been blocked until last week by Turkey. With the three governments signing a memorandum last week, the way was cleared for the signing of the accession protocols. Thirty NATO governments will now have to ratify the protocols. Sweden and Finland have highly capable militaries and domestic arms industries. Their entry into NATO will strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank and its collective defences in northern Europe. Finland’s entry into NATO will extend the alliance’s border with Russia by another 1,340 km. Finland and Sweden could vastly expand NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Circle. Russia, which has invested heavily in infrastructure in the Arctic region, can expect its presence here to be more robustly challenged by NATO.</p>.<p>Changes in NATO are being watched closely around the world. At its recent summit in Madrid, leaders pledged support to Ukraine against Russia “for as long as it takes,” signalling NATO’s long-term commitment against Russia. NATO’s new Strategic Concept names Russia as the "most significant and direct threat to Allied security." Although China is mentioned in the latest Strategic Concept, it is described only as a challenge to “interests, security and values,” unlike Russia, which is perceived as a clear and present danger. It is evident that Russia will be the focus of NATO’s attention. This means that the Indo-Pacific region is not a priority for NATO members. Importantly, China is not a serious concern for NATO. In recent months, the Biden administration reached out to Southeast Asian and East Asian countries to reassure them that the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific is strong. However, the recent NATO summit conveys a different message.</p>.<p>With Russia appearing as the greatest threat to the US once again, rather than China, the US could be tempted to reach out to Beijing, if only to prevent a Russia-China axis from solidifying. This has implications for India. Thus, the impact of the security situation in Europe and the changes in NATO are unlikely to remain confined to Europe. Its ripple effects will be felt in waters and territories as far away as the Indo-Pacific region. India now has to plan for multiple contingencies.</p>
<p>With NATO member-states signing the Accession Protocols for Sweden and Finland on Tuesday, the process for the two Nordic countries to join the military alliance has crossed a crucial barrier. Sweden and Finland had stayed out of NATO even at the height of the Cold War. However, Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine prompted them to seek NATO membership. Their path to membership had been blocked until last week by Turkey. With the three governments signing a memorandum last week, the way was cleared for the signing of the accession protocols. Thirty NATO governments will now have to ratify the protocols. Sweden and Finland have highly capable militaries and domestic arms industries. Their entry into NATO will strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank and its collective defences in northern Europe. Finland’s entry into NATO will extend the alliance’s border with Russia by another 1,340 km. Finland and Sweden could vastly expand NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Circle. Russia, which has invested heavily in infrastructure in the Arctic region, can expect its presence here to be more robustly challenged by NATO.</p>.<p>Changes in NATO are being watched closely around the world. At its recent summit in Madrid, leaders pledged support to Ukraine against Russia “for as long as it takes,” signalling NATO’s long-term commitment against Russia. NATO’s new Strategic Concept names Russia as the "most significant and direct threat to Allied security." Although China is mentioned in the latest Strategic Concept, it is described only as a challenge to “interests, security and values,” unlike Russia, which is perceived as a clear and present danger. It is evident that Russia will be the focus of NATO’s attention. This means that the Indo-Pacific region is not a priority for NATO members. Importantly, China is not a serious concern for NATO. In recent months, the Biden administration reached out to Southeast Asian and East Asian countries to reassure them that the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific is strong. However, the recent NATO summit conveys a different message.</p>.<p>With Russia appearing as the greatest threat to the US once again, rather than China, the US could be tempted to reach out to Beijing, if only to prevent a Russia-China axis from solidifying. This has implications for India. Thus, the impact of the security situation in Europe and the changes in NATO are unlikely to remain confined to Europe. Its ripple effects will be felt in waters and territories as far away as the Indo-Pacific region. India now has to plan for multiple contingencies.</p>
