JOIN USEconomic recovery depends on Covid-19 curve in states: Centre
After propagating a V-shaped economic recovery in the next two to three quarters, the government Tuesday admitted the economy’s return to health will be critically linked to how Covid-19 infection curve evolves across the states.
India’s top 12 growth-driving states account for 85% of the Covid-19 caseload, with 40% of confirmed cases concentrated in the top two growth-drivers -- Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
“The increase in the Covid-19 cases and subsequent intermittent lockdowns make the recovery prospects fragile and call for constant and dynamic monitoring. The future economic recovery of India is crucially linked to how the Covid-19 infection curve evolves across states of India,” the finance ministry said in a report.
The highest growth in active Covid-19 cases in July was seen in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand.
Though signs of recovery were witnessed in manufacturing, industrial production, fertilizer sales and diesel consumption in the months of May and June, they have started moderating in July.
With India unlocking, the worst seems to be over for the economy as high-frequency indicators recovered in June 2020 from an unprecedented trough in April. However, risks on account of rising Covid-19 cases and intermittent state lockdowns remain, the ministry said.
Both the ministry officials and Finance Commission Chairman N K Singh had last week said India would see a sharp V-shaped recovery after October till March 31, 2021.