The proportion of manufacturing units reporting an increase in output dropped to 10 percent during April-June 2020 from 15 percent in the previous quarter, according to a quarterly poll by industry body Ficci.
The survey, which drew responses from over 300 manufacturing units from both large and SME segments with a combined annual turnover of over Rs 2.5 lakh crore, revealed that the automotive sector is the worst hit in terms of ongoing operations in the factories as per the demand and current orders post easing out of lockdown restrictions.
Other sectors where operations remain abysmally low are leather and footwear, electronics and electricals & textiles machinery. Moreover, the percentage of respondents expecting low or the same production is 90 percent in April-June 2020-21 which was 85 percent in the last quarter of 2019-20.
The hiring outlook for the manufacturing sector shows a bleak picture as 85 percent of the respondents mentioned that they are not likely to hire additional workforce in the next three months.
"This presents a worrisome situation in the hiring scenario as compared to the previous quarter Q-4 of 2019-20, where 78 percent of the respondents were not in favour of hiring additional workforce," Ficci said.
The outlook for exports is subdued and seems to be substantially affected due to Covid-19 outbreak and other restrictions in place, as only eight percent of the participants are expecting a rise in their exports for the first quarter of 2020-21 and 10 percent are expecting exports to continue to be on the same path as that of the same quarter last year.
The survey also assessed if there is any change in sourcing strategies of the manufacturers to reduce dependence on one country. The results showed that in certain areas like automotive, textiles machinery and leather/footwear firms are looking at alternative sources of inputs/raw materials.
In terms of back to business status, the survey noted that on an average, firms are operating depending on the sectors between 28 percent to 63 percent of their capacities with workforce deployment ranging from 33 percent to 57 percent.
This assessment is also reflective in order books as 85 percent of the respondents in April-June 2020-21 expected lesser number of orders as against 54 percent in January-March 2019, said Ficci.
The industry body's latest quarterly survey assessed the sentiments of manufacturers for Q-1 (April-June 2020-21) for 12 major sectors namely automotive, capital goods, cement and ceramics, chemicals, fertilizers and pharmaceuticals, electronics & electricals, leather and footwear, medical devices, metal & metal products, paper products, textiles, textile machinery, etc.
The survey found that overall capacity utilisation in manufacturing has witnessed a decline to 61.5 percent in January-March (Q4) 2019-20 as compared to 76 percent in Q-3 2019-20. The future investment outlook looks subdued as only 22 percent respondents reported plans for capacity additions for the next six months as compared to 28 percent in the previous quarter.
High raw material prices, high cost of finance, the uncertainty of demand, shortage of skilled labour and working capital, high logistics cost, low domestic and global demand due to imposition of lockdown across all countries to contain the spread of coronavirus, excess capacities due to high volume of cheap imports into India, lack of financial assistance, unstable market, complex procedures for obtaining environmental clearances, high power tariff, are some of the major constraints which are affecting expansion plans of the respondents, Ficci said.
Besides, 76 percent of the respondents expect either more or same level of inventory in April-June 2019, which is considerably less as compared to the previous quarters, where around 82 percent respondents expected either more or the same level of inventory in Q-4 2019-20 and Q-3 2019-20.
The average interest rate paid by the manufacturers has reduced slightly to 9.4 percent per annum as against 9.9 percent per annum during the last quarter and the highest rate remains as high as 14.5 percent.
The recent cuts in repo rate by the RBI has not led to a consequential reduction in the lending rate as reported by 65 percent of the respondents, Ficci said. Based on expectations in different sectors, all the sectors are likely to register low growth in Q-1 2020-21.
The primary reason for such depressed expectations seems to be the imposition of lockdown, restricted exports and other guidelines in place as a response towards Covid-19 outbreak, Ficci said.
The cost of production as a percentage of sales for manufacturers in the survey has risen for 64 percent respondents. This is considerably higher than that reported in Q3 2019-20, where 55 percent respondents recorded an increase in their production costs.
Industry respondents have attributed the hike in production costs primarily to high fixed costs, higher overhead costs for ensuring safety protocols, drastic reduction in volumes due to lockdown, lower capacity utilization, high freight charges and other logistic costs, increased cost of raw materials, power cost and high-interest rates.
Sectors like textiles and textiles machinery have only one-third of the total labour force engaged in the operations and are hence facing a labour shortage. Similarly, automotive and leather & footwear have also witnessed around 35 percent workers attendance at factories.
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