Vodafone Idea plans to raise $1.5 billion through stake sale, other modes

Vodafone Group Plc’s India unit is planning to raise about $1.5 billion as it seeks to turn around its fortunes in the country’s fiercely competitive wireless market, people familiar with the matter said.

Vodafone Idea Ltd. is discussing a funding plan that could include a share sale, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. It is working with advisers including New York-based investment bank PJT Partners Inc. as it seeks potential strategic partners to buy stakes, the people said.

The telecom operator is working to identify potential investors in the US, the people said. It could also raise part of the funds through other methods such as an offering of equity-linked securities, one of the people said.

Vodafone Idea plans to discuss the options at a board meeting Friday, the people said. Details of the plan are still being finalized, and the size and structure of the fundraising could change, according to the people.

Vodafone Idea extended gains in Mumbai trading after the Bloomberg News report, rising as much as 30%. That’s the biggest increase since March 13.

A Bloomberg study of 17 emerging markets has found a 42% correlation between gross domestic product per capita and stock performance since the virus-fueled risk sell-off began on Jan. 20 until early this week. The correlation between GDP per capita and currency returns was 31%.

Wealthier emerging markets have been better placed to rebound from the March sell-off due to more advanced technology and governance that have given them greater flexibility to respond to the pandemic. They have been able to limit the impact of lockdowns and social distancing, make larger fiscal responses, and are better equipped with the resources needed to curb the outbreak, such as hospitals, test centers and quarantine facilities.

Countries such as South Korea and Poland have seen the smallest increase in economic disruptions, according to an effective lockdown index compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The gauge takes into account a combination of government restrictions that suppress activity and adds social distancing numbers based on Google mobility data. There has been a negative correlation of 54% between Goldman’s gauges and per capita GDP. In turn, countries with the lowest lockdown index have tended to see the best stock market and currency performance.

The rich-poor divide among emerging markets is widest in Asia. The stock returns from the four economies with per capita GDP above $10,000 last year -- China, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia -- has been 20% above that of the nations which fall below that level, including India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. While this is partly due to the number of technology companies listed in the former countries, it is also due to the fact that authorities there have been able to spend more to reassure citizens and investors.

Stimulus Gap

South Korea’s fiscal response to the pandemic, including three supplementary budgets, totals 270 trillion won ($228 billion), or about 14% of GDP, providing support to the stock market even as the local outbreak has worsened. In contrast, the Philippine government has said it’s unable to fund the 1.3 trillion pesos ($27 billion) stimulus package approved in June. The nation’s stock market is the region’s worst performer this year, dropping more than 25%.

True, some emerging-market central banks such as India and Thailand may be deliberately seeking to hold back their currencies, but this represents only a relatively small proportion of the overall underperformance.

Looking ahead, lower rates of infection, greater policy space, and stronger health services may help more affluent countries maintain their lead in the economic recovery.

Richer emerging economies are likely to gain access to effective coronavirus vaccines sooner, following the steps of wealthy developed nations. There is even a risk bigger economies will monopolize supply, a scenario that played out in the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

“Not many emerging markets have access to cutting-edge technology, and they will continue to struggle,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond trader at Monex Inc. in Tokyo. “We will continue to see the divergence in developed and emerging markets going forward.”

Note: Simon Flint is an emerging-market strategist at Bloomberg News. The observations he makes are his own and not intended as investment advice.