<p>Indian equities are likely to consolidate at higher levels this week, following a sharp 10% rally over the past ten trading sessions. The key monitorable remains the second round of diplomatic peace talks between the US and Iran, with the April 22 ceasefire deadline fast approaching. Broader markets are expected to remain vibrant and would continue to witness stock-specific action, driven by sectoral triggers and the ongoing Q4 results season.</p>.<p>The sustainability of the next leg of the rally will largely depend on developments in global geopolitics and macroeconomic stability. Results from major banks — HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Yes Bank — that reported over the weekend are likely to set the tone for the sector in the coming days. Key results expected this week include Shriram Finance, L&T Finance, Infosys, SBI Life, Tech Mahindra, and Nalco. Institutional flows will also remain a key monitorable, although a positive signal emerged last week with FIIs turning net buyers.</p>.Markets likely to see positive momentum.<p>On the global front, the upcoming visit of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to India from April 19–21, is likely to strengthen bilateral cooperation across key areas such as trade, shipbuilding, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and emerging technologies. The visit is expected to lay the groundwork for achieving $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, while also accelerating negotiations to upgrade the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, thereby offering long-term tailwinds to sectors like manufacturing, capital goods, and technology.</p>.<p>US equity markets have staged a sharp recovery in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 touching a record high of 7,041 and gaining 3.5% last week alone. The rally has been supported by optimism around a potential ceasefire in West Asia and easing energy prices. The Nasdaq Composite settled at 24,102 on April 16—marking its 12th consecutive positive session, the longest winning streak since 2009—while the Dow Jones held steady near 48,578. As the Nasdaq and S&P 500 push deeper into record territory, the Dow has also turned positive for the year, recovering from the sharp 10% correction witnessed in March.</p>.<p>Indian equities also traded with a positive bias, with benchmark indices ending higher and the Nifty 50 gaining 1.3%. Broader markets outperformed, as the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 advanced 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively, indicating a pickup in risk appetite across segments. Sectorally, performance was broad-based. Nifty Energy (+4.6%) and Metal (+4.2%) emerged as the top gainers, supported by firm commodity prices and improved global cues, followed by Media (+3.8%), Realty (+3.6%) and FMCG (+3.0%), with FMCG benefiting from a rotation towards relatively resilient consumption plays amid rising inflation concerns. IT (+2.5%) and Infrastructure (+2.1%) also posted gains, aided by currency stability and continued capex traction, while Nifty Bank (+1.2%) saw modest upside on improving liquidity conditions and selective buying. Pharma (+1.5%) gained on defensive positioning and steady earnings visibility. Crude holding below $100/barrel added to the positive tone. The rupee firmed 28 paise to 92.86 against the dollar, supported by the improved risk tone and returning foreign flows.</p>.<p>External sector dynamics have shown some improvement, with India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowing to $20.7 billion in March, supported by a decline in imports and a sequential recovery in exports. Strong services exports continue to provide a buffer, helping contain the current account deficit. However, given India’s high dependence on energy imports, any spike in crude prices remains a key risk to the external balance and currency stability.</p>.<p>A key overhang for global markets remains the expiration of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 22. Overall, while the near-term outlook suggests consolidation for headline indices, the underlying tone remains positive, with broader markets likely to outperform amid earnings-driven opportunities and sector-specific momentum.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is Head of Research, Wealth Management, MOFSL)</em></p>
<p>Indian equities are likely to consolidate at higher levels this week, following a sharp 10% rally over the past ten trading sessions. The key monitorable remains the second round of diplomatic peace talks between the US and Iran, with the April 22 ceasefire deadline fast approaching. Broader markets are expected to remain vibrant and would continue to witness stock-specific action, driven by sectoral triggers and the ongoing Q4 results season.</p>.<p>The sustainability of the next leg of the rally will largely depend on developments in global geopolitics and macroeconomic stability. Results from major banks — HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Yes Bank — that reported over the weekend are likely to set the tone for the sector in the coming days. Key results expected this week include Shriram Finance, L&T Finance, Infosys, SBI Life, Tech Mahindra, and Nalco. Institutional flows will also remain a key monitorable, although a positive signal emerged last week with FIIs turning net buyers.</p>.Markets likely to see positive momentum.<p>On the global front, the upcoming visit of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to India from April 19–21, is likely to strengthen bilateral cooperation across key areas such as trade, shipbuilding, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and emerging technologies. The visit is expected to lay the groundwork for achieving $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, while also accelerating negotiations to upgrade the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, thereby offering long-term tailwinds to sectors like manufacturing, capital goods, and technology.</p>.<p>US equity markets have staged a sharp recovery in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 touching a record high of 7,041 and gaining 3.5% last week alone. The rally has been supported by optimism around a potential ceasefire in West Asia and easing energy prices. The Nasdaq Composite settled at 24,102 on April 16—marking its 12th consecutive positive session, the longest winning streak since 2009—while the Dow Jones held steady near 48,578. As the Nasdaq and S&P 500 push deeper into record territory, the Dow has also turned positive for the year, recovering from the sharp 10% correction witnessed in March.</p>.<p>Indian equities also traded with a positive bias, with benchmark indices ending higher and the Nifty 50 gaining 1.3%. Broader markets outperformed, as the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 advanced 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively, indicating a pickup in risk appetite across segments. Sectorally, performance was broad-based. Nifty Energy (+4.6%) and Metal (+4.2%) emerged as the top gainers, supported by firm commodity prices and improved global cues, followed by Media (+3.8%), Realty (+3.6%) and FMCG (+3.0%), with FMCG benefiting from a rotation towards relatively resilient consumption plays amid rising inflation concerns. IT (+2.5%) and Infrastructure (+2.1%) also posted gains, aided by currency stability and continued capex traction, while Nifty Bank (+1.2%) saw modest upside on improving liquidity conditions and selective buying. Pharma (+1.5%) gained on defensive positioning and steady earnings visibility. Crude holding below $100/barrel added to the positive tone. The rupee firmed 28 paise to 92.86 against the dollar, supported by the improved risk tone and returning foreign flows.</p>.<p>External sector dynamics have shown some improvement, with India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowing to $20.7 billion in March, supported by a decline in imports and a sequential recovery in exports. Strong services exports continue to provide a buffer, helping contain the current account deficit. However, given India’s high dependence on energy imports, any spike in crude prices remains a key risk to the external balance and currency stability.</p>.<p>A key overhang for global markets remains the expiration of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 22. Overall, while the near-term outlook suggests consolidation for headline indices, the underlying tone remains positive, with broader markets likely to outperform amid earnings-driven opportunities and sector-specific momentum.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is Head of Research, Wealth Management, MOFSL)</em></p>