India Ratings revises FY21 GDP growth projection to negative 11.8%

Domestic rating agency India Ratings and Research on Tuesday revised the country's FY21 GDP growth forecast to (-) 11.8 per cent from (-) 5.3 per cent earlier.

The agency, however, expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to rebound and grow at 9.9 per cent year-on-year in FY22 mainly due to the weak base of FY21.

“India Rating's FY21 GDP growth forecast of negative 11.8 per cent will be the lowest GDP growth in the Indian history (GDP data is available from FY-1951) and sixth instance of economic contraction, others being in FY-1958, FY-1966, FY-1967, FY-1973 and FY-1980,” the rating agency said in a report.

The previous lowest was negative 5.2 per cent in FY80, it said.

The agency said the negative 23.9 per cent growth in the first quarter of FY21 is the first contraction in quarterly GDP data series which has been made available in the public domain since the first quarter of FY98.

It estimates economic loss in FY21 to be Rs 18.44 lakh crore.

According to the agency, the retail and wholesale inflation is expected to come in at 5.1 per cent and negative 1.7 per cent, respectively, in FY21.