Economic growth likely above 8% in October-December 2025 quarter: SBI Research

India’s GDP is estimated to grow at 8.1 per cent in the October-December 2025 quarter, maintaining above 8 per cent expansion for the two consecutive quarters, on the back of strong consumption, SBI Research said on Tuesday.

High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in Q3 of FY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season, SBI Research said in a note.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is scheduled to release Q3 data on February 27. This will be the first GDP data release based on the new series. The new series will have 2022-23 as the base year, as against 2011-12.

Along with the quarterly data, the ministry is also scheduled to release the Second Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26, along with past three financial years’ GDP estimates as per the new base 2022-23.

“Overall, we expect Q3FY26 real GDP growth of closer to 8.1 per cent. Given significant methodological changes, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision,” SBI Research said.

In the first advance estimates released on January 7, the ministry pegged the 2025-26 economic growth at 7.4%, as per the 2011-12 series. India’s GDP growth stood at 6.5% in 2024-25.

In the first two quarters of the current fiscal, the GDP growth stood at 7.8% and 8.2%, respectively. However, these quarterly numbers are expected to change with the base revision.

The Centre also recently released CPI inflation data with revised base year. The CPI base year has been updated to 2024 from 2012.

Apart from the change in the base year, the new CPI and GDP series have also undergone significant methodological changes.

According to the government, the series will improve data accuracy. The new methodology will incorporate more granular data, including GST records, e-Vahan (vehicle registrations), and information on natural gas consumption.