Fuel, fertiliser prices may remain high for prolonged period: IMF, World Bank, IEA

In a joint statement, the three institutions said the war has forcibly displaced people, impacted jobs, and reduced travel and tourism, which may take time to reverse.

Washington: The IMF, World Bank and the International Energy Agency said that fuel and fertiliser prices may remain high for a prolonged period as the situation in the Middle East remained uncertain due to the war.

The Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group met here as part of the coordination group they had established earlier this month for a joint response to the energy and economic impacts on the war in the Middle East.

In a joint statement here, the three institutions said the war has forcibly displaced people, impacted jobs, and reduced travel and tourism, which may take time to reverse.

“As we noted earlier this month, the impact of the war is substantial, global, and highly asymmetric, disproportionately affecting energy importers, in particular low-income countries,” the statement said.

It noted that the shock has led to higher oil, gas and fertiliser prices, triggering concerns about food security and job losses as well.

“Some oil and gas producers in the Middle East have also seen a dramatic loss of export revenue,” they said.

The statement said the situation in the Middle East remains very uncertain, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is yet to normalise.

“Even after a resumption of regular shipping flows through the Strait, it will take time for global supplies of key commodities to move back towards their pre-conflict levels – and fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for a prolonged period given the damage to infrastructure.

“Due to supply disruptions, shortages of key inputs are likely to have implications for energy, food, and other industries. The war has also forcibly displaced people, impacted jobs, and reduced travel and tourism, which may take time to reverse,” they said.

The leaders of the three institutions shared their latest assessments, on the eve of the release of IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report and IMF’s World Economic Outlook.

“We also discussed the situations of the countries most affected by the shock as well as the responses by our institutions. Our teams are working closely, including at country level, to leverage our respective expertise and help countries through tailored policy advice and, in the case of the IMF and World Bank, financial support where needed,” the statement said.

The leaders said they will continue to monitor closely and assess the impact of the war on energy markets, the global economy and individual countries, and to coordinate their response and support to member countries – working with, and drawing on, other international organisations’ expertise as needed to lay the foundations for a resilient recovery that delivers stability, growth and jobs.