New GDP series upgrades FY26 growth projection to 7.6%

India's GDP to cross 4 trillion dollars mark in FY27, said Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran

New Delhi: The central government on Friday upgraded its estimate for the current financial year’s economic growth to 7.6 per cent, up from the 7.4 per cent projection announced in January.

In the October-December 2025 quarter the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 7.8 per cent, lower than 8.4 per cent growth recorded in the previous quarter, as per data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

The National Statistics Office (NSO) released the first quarterly and yearly data of national accounts with base year 2022-23, replacing the previous series of 2011-12 base year.

The GDP growth for the 2024-25 financial year has been revised upward to 7.1 per cent. Real GDP or GDP at constant prices (2022-23) is to rise to Rs 322.58 lakh crore in the current fiscal.

Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to increase to Rs 345.47 lakh crore in 2025-26, against Rs 318.07 lakh crore in the previous year, registering a growth of 8.6 per cent.

Addressing a press conference Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said India’s GDP is likely to cross the 4 trillion dollars mark in 2026-27, with nominal growth of 11 per cent. Real GDP growth in 2026-27 is estimated to be in the range of 7-7.4 per cent.

In the new series, the 2023-24 GDP growth number has been revised downward to 7.2 per cent from 9.2 per cent, while 2024-25 numbers revised upward to 7.1 per cent from 6.5 per cent.

“If we look at the levels the real GDP has increased significantly in the new base when compared to the old base because of better coverage and use of double-digit deflation and other methodological changes,” SBI Research said in a note.

The size of the Indian economy is estimated to be smaller in the new series with 2022-23 base year than the old series with 2011-12 base. The nominal GDP for FY2024 and FY2025 is 3.8 per cent lower as per the new series when compared with the old series.

For the current financial year the nominal GDP as per the second advance estimate with 2022-23 base year is 3.3 per cent lower than the first advance estimate as per the old series.

“This implies that the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio would be 15-20 bps higher on an average during these years as compared to the previous estimates. More importantly, this would also imply a fiscal deficit target of 4.46 per cent of GDP for FY2027, as against the 4.3 per cent assumed in the budget, assuming a nominal GDP growth of 10 per cent in the fiscal,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.