Price decline, Chinese imports may derail India’s 2030 steel output target

New Delhi: India’s plan of increasing steel manufacturing capacity to 300 million tonnes (MT) by 2030 is likely to be derailed if prices remain subdued and corrective measures are not taken to curb dumping of cheap metal products from China, Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik said.

“They (steel manufacturing companies) are not in a good position financially. That’s why we are considering measures to ensure that cheap and substandard steel is not dumped into the country,” Poundrik told DH in an exclusive interaction.

He said the decline in prices due to lower demand in the international markets and cheap imports from China and some other countries have negatively impacted the domestic steel industry.

“If the prices continue to be subdued it will have an adverse impact on our expansion plans,” said Poundrik, adding that the decline in steel prices has squeezed the manufacturers’ margin.

According to Poundrik, at present India has 104.8 million tonnes of installed steel production capacity and 21.3 million tonnes are under execution. Companies have announced plans for 85 million tonnes but work has not started. In addition to this, secondary steel production capacity is around 91 million tonnes annually.

“The 21 million tonnes capacity is under execution that will come anyway because the projects are already on. But the others, which are still to start execution, will be impacted,” he said.

To achieve the 300 million tonnes of annual steel production capacity by 2030, as envisioned in the National Steel Policy, an investment of around $120 billion would be required.

The companies that have announced expansion plans include Tata Steel (18.4 million tonnes), ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel (22.8 million tonnes), Jindal Steel and Power (25 million tonnes), JSW Steel (7.5 million tonnes) and Steel Authority of India Limited (12 million tonnes).

These companies are under financial stress despite a robust increase in domestic demand. Steel demand in India increased by 11 per cent year-on-year in 2024, whereas the global steel demand declined by 1 per cent. In 2025, India steel demand is estimated to increase by 8-9 per cent, as per CRISIL.

Steel prices in the Indian market declined sharply in 2024 and are expected to remain soft in the current year also. The price of hot-rolled coil (HRC) dipped by 9 per cent and cold rolled steel by 7 per cent year-on-year in 2024.

One of the key reasons for the decline in prices is higher imports. India's imports of steel surged by 41 per cent year-on-year in the first six months of 2024-25 while exports dipped by 36 per cent during the period.

India imposes basic custom duty of 7.5 per cent on import of steel. “The government is examining whether that can be increased,” Poundrik said. However, he underlined that higher custom duty would not be applicable on imports from countries with which India has free trade agreements.

“The industry has filed an application for safeguard duty imposition, which the DGTR is examining. So they will give their recommendations probably in February and then the government will take a decision on that,” he said.